Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Hawks-Clippers)

The NBA gets started early on Sunday, with a marquee matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks tipping off at 1 p.m. EST.

I have a player prop to bet in that game, as well as three more bets for Sunday's action.

As we all wait for the brackets to be revealed for the 2024 NCAA Tournaments in men's and women's college basketball, why not cash some NBA bets on the side?

Here are my favorite plays for Sunday, March 17:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 276-258-13 (-1.41 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 901-816-21 (+38.53 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
• Denver Nuggets -4 (-108) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
• Kyrie Irving OVER 30.5 Points and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Atlanta Hawks-Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 221 (-110) – 0.5 unit

Kevin Durant OVER 25.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

After a four-game stretch where he scored 35 or more points in each matchup, Kevin Durant scored 20 in a loss to Boston and 13 in a win against Charlotte. 

That has lowered his points prop back to 25.5 in this game, a perfect number to buy low on. 

KD still took 19 and 15 shots in those two games, and he’s attempted at least 19 shots in 11 of his last 13 games. 

Durant had 28 points on 11-of-21 shooting in his last meeting with the Bucks, and he’s still averaging 28.1 points per game despite playing more with Bradley Beal and Devin Booker both healthy. I love KD at this discounted number on Sunday. 

Denver Nuggets -4 (-108) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit

Denver has not been great as a road favorite (11-13-1 against the spread), but I think the team could be in line to win this game – and cover – at this short number. 

There’s a chance that Luka Doncic (questionable, hamstring) is out in this game, or at least is limited, and that’s a good sign for Denver. 

Dallas has struggled as a home dog – going 5-7 against the spread – and the team has not been able to win games without Luka all season, going 3-6 straight up when he’s out. Even if he does play, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nuggets still win, as they’ve been elite since the All-Star break. 

Denver has won nine of its last 10 and five straight heading into this matchup. I’ll ride with a healthy Nuggets team tonight. 

Kyrie Irving OVER 30.5 Points and Assists (-115) – 0.5 unit

Kyrie Irving could be a value bet here if Doncic sits, as he’s putting up 31.5 points, 7.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game in six games without Luka. 

Kyrie had 36 points in 12 games against Oklahoma City when Doncic sat, and he’s cleared 30.5 points and assists in back-to-back games. 

The Mavs star is averaging 25.4 points and 5.2 assists per game this season, so if he’s around his season averages, we have a good chance of cashing this prop. 

Atlanta Hawks-Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 221 (-110) – 0.5 unit

I’m looking at the total in this game, as the Atlanta Hawks have struggled on offense without Trae Young, and the Los Angeles Clippers have gone under the total of 221 points in five of their last eight games. 

Atlanta’s offense is struggling, scoring 103 or fewer points in three of its last four games, going UNDER this total in seven of its last 10 games – with two games finishing with exactly 221 points. 

It’s not what we’ve come to expect from the Hawks, but with two starters out, the team isn’t finding offense as easily. 

As for the Clips, they’re one of the best UNDER teams in the NBA (37-27-2) overall this season. 

Plus, the Clippers are 18-11-1 to the UNDER in games as a home favorite. Don’t be shocked to see this game in the low 100s on Sunday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.