Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Knicks-Pacers Game 6, Pascal Siakam)

Could we see a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference semifinals?

The New York Knicks lead the Indiana Pacers 3-2 after a blowout win at Madison Square Garden in Game 5, making the home team 5-0 in this series.

The Boston Celtics have already clinched a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, which will begin on Tuesday night in Boston.

However, oddsmakers have set the Knicks as 5.5-point underdogs in this matchup. New York is banged up with OG Anunoby (hamstring) likely to miss his fourth straight game, but it should benefit from having two days of rest in between Games 5 and 6.

Meanwhile, the Pacers are a perfect 5-0 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this postseason, winning Game 4 in dominant fashion last Sunday against New York. 

Can Tyrese Haliburton and company bounce back from a crushing loss in Game 5? Based on the latest odds, they have an implied probability of nearly 70 percent to force a Game 7. 

I have not been great at predicting a side in this matchup, especially after taking Indiana in Game 5 (a slight emotional hedge). Can I turn that around tonight? 

Here’s how I’m looking to bet on Game 6:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 357-362-13 (-5.70 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 982-920-21 (+34.24 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Knicks +5.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
• Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 Points (-112) – 0.5 unit

New York Knicks +5.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

Yes, Indiana is undefeated at home in the playoffs, but I think the Knicks keep this game close, especially since nine of their 11 games in the playoffs have come down to waning minutes in the fourth quarter.

Tom Thibodeau made his big adjustment in Game 5, moving Miles McBride into the starting lineup and going small. 

While it sets up an unfavorable matchup on Pascal Siakam with the smaller Josh Hart guarding him, the Knicks were able to free up Jalen Brunson – and McBride – on offense by running guard-to-guard pick and rolls.

When Indiana tried to double, McBride was able to take the pass from Brunson and orchestrate a 4-on-3 situation to generate more shots at the rim. If the Pacers switched, the Knicks got the matchup they’ve wanted all series with Andrew Nembhard guarding Brunson. 

During the regular season, the Knicks’ five-man lineup of Brunson, McBride, Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein was one of the best in the NBA.

It posted a net rating of 31.1 across 172 minutes (offensive rating of 138.2 and a defensive rating of 107.1). Thibodeau had this in his bag as an adjustment, and he pulled it out at the right time in Game 5.

Now, the Pacers have a few days off to learn how to counter this, but for a Knicks team that has played heavy minutes all postseason, I think the rest favors them even more. Fresher legs for Brunson and Hart is a must, and let’s not forget that New York nearly stole Game 3 in Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog. 

I think the Knicks at least hang around on Friday – if not pull off the upset – in Indiana. 

Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 Points (-112) – 0.5 unit

In two of the three games that OG Anunoby has missed in this series, Pascal Siakam has cleared 21.5 points, and the one game he didn’t came in the Pacers’ blowout win in Game 4 where he sat a large chunk of the second half but still shot 7-for-9 from the field. 

The Knicks don’t really have an answer for Siakam down low, but they seem content with letting him get buckets as long as they can slow down the outside shooting of Indiana like they did in Game 5. 

Siakam has 14 or more shot attempts in four of his five games in this series, scoring 26, 14 and 22 in the three games without Anunoby. He’s a must bet in a game the Pacers have to win to keep their season alive.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.