Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Luka Doncic, Celtics-Cavs)

A pair of huge Game 2 matchups take place in the NBA on Thursday night, with the Boston Celtics looking to remain the odds on favorites to win the NBA Finals while the Dallas Mavericks are hoping to avoid another blowout loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference. 

Wednesday’s plays were an absolute wash, with OG Anunoby getting injured to crush our dreams on his player prop, but there was some good news. My preseason MVP bet on Nikola Jokic officially cashed, moving us closer to positive on the season. 

Compared to prior NBA seasons, the 2023-24 season has been a rough one, but that doesn’t mean we can’t turn things around in these playoffs. 

Here’s how I’m betting the Game 2 action on Thursday night:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 352-353-13 (-3.65 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 977-911-21 (+36.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Boston Celtics First Half -8.5 (-105) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit
• Luka Doncic UNDER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-122) – 0.5 unit

Boston Celtics First Half -8.5 (-105) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – 0.5 unit

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The Boston Celtics are elite in the first half.

After covering in Game 1, the Celtics are now 61-26-1 against the spread in the first half, by far the best mark in the NBA. So, I’m going back to the well and taking them to cover in the first half in Game 2 as well. 

Why the first half over the full game?

Well, Boston is now favored by 13.5 points in Game 2, and I’m worried about a potential Cavs backdoor cover if the C’s rest their starters down the stretch of a game. 

Either way, Boston has won five of its six playoff games this postseason by at least 14 points (the only one it didn’t, it lost). 

Cleveland had very little offensive help for Donovan Mitchell in Game 1, and I don’t expect that to change much given the team’s playoff performance so far, especially on the road. The Cavs have yet to win or cover in a road game this postseason. 

Bet Boston to lead big early on when we know the starters will be on the floor. 

Luka Doncic UNDER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-122) – 0.5 unit

Luka Doncic is shooting just 22.7 percent from beyond the arc this postseason, and he hasn’t cleared 3.5 made 3-pointers since Game 2 against the Los Angeles Clippers.

It’s not for a lack of trying – Doncic is attempting 10.7 shots from 3 per game in the playoffs – but a knee injury has certainly limited the Dallas star and his ability to gain separation on offense.

Lu Dort did a great job on Doncic in Game 1, holding the Mavs star to just 1-for-8 from 3 and 6-for-19 from the field. This isn’t the first time that Dort has dominated defensively, as Brandon Ingram shot just 11-for-33 in the first round when guarded by the Thunder stopper. 

Even with his massive usage, I can’t get behind Luka at this number given his recent shooting struggles. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.