Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II)
By Peter Dewey
Will the Western Conference Finals follow the path of the Eastern Conference Finals and see a team get out to a 3-0 series lead on Sunday night?
Minnesota Timberwolves fans are hoping it doesn’t as they trail 2-0 against the Dallas Mavericks after losing both games at home to open the series.
Oddsmakers still are giving the Wolves a chance, setting them at +2.5 in this game, a much shorter line than Dallas was in Game 2 (+5.5) in Minnesota.
I’m staying away from a side in this game since the Wolves are an impressive 5-1 straight up and against the spread as road underdogs this postseason, but they haven’t played well in this series.
Anthony Edwards has to shoot better (17-for-57 in his last three games) for the Wolves to have any chance against Luka Doncic and company.
Speaking of Doncic, he’s one of the two players that I’m trusting in the prop market for today’s NBA Best Bets!
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 372-376-13 (-6.01 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 997-934-21 (+33.93 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Luka Doncic OVER 30.5 Points (-108) – 0.5 unit
- Dereck Lively OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit
Luka Doncic OVER 30.5 Points (-108) – 0.5 unit
Luka Doncic is back.
After a slow start to the postseason, partially due to knee and ankle injuries, Doncic has turned things around scoring the ball, putting up 31, 29, 33 and 32 points in his last four games, clearing this total in three of them.
We know the usage will be there for Luka, but it’s been his 3-point shooting (at least three made 3s in four straight games) that has really picked up compared to early in the playoffs.
After shooting 26.0 percent from 3 in his first 10 playoff games in the 2023-24 season, Doncic is shooting 44.7 percent over his last four contests.
The Wolves haven’t had an answer for him in this series, and it’s hard to forget that Doncic averaged nearly 34 points per game during the regular season. This prop is still a value until the Wolves show they can slow down the MVP finalist.
Dereck Lively OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-105) – 0.5 unit
The Dallas big man duo of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford has swung in Livley’s favor in a big way as of late.
Not only does Lively have the best plus/minus on the team this postseason, but he’s also seen his minutes climb up over 26 per game in this series and over 26:30 in each game since Game 6 of the second round.
As a result, Lively has put up four straight games with at least nine rebounds, clearing 7.5 boards in five of his last six contests.
The Mavs need Lively out there against the likes of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid, and he’s delivered time and time again on the glass. He’s a must bet until the market adjusts for his rebounding dominance as of late.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.