Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Luka Doncic, Jaden McDaniels in Game 2)

We’re in for a doozy of a series in the Western Conference Finals.

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks pulled off a huge upset win in Game 1 over the Minnesota Timberwolves, moving the Wolves to just 1-3 straight up in their last four home games this postseason. 

Usually, the team that wins Game 1 of the series has a huge advantage to win the series – taking it 77.4 percent of the time in the Conference Finals in NBA history. 

In Game 1, we hit bets on Naz Reid and Dereck Lively II, while our Luka Doncic prop came up just short. 

I’m still going back to a play for Doncic, as well as my first pick on a side in this matchup. 

Let’s break down the picks for Game 2!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 370-374-13 (-5.42 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 995-932-21 (+34.52 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 Points (-108) – 0.5 unit
• Jaden McDaniels OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-135) – 0.5 unit
• Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-112) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit

Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 Points (-108) – 0.5 unit

Don’t look now, but Luka Doncic is starting to score the ball at a high rate again. 

After several down scoring games – partially due to knee and ankle injuries – Doncic has scored 29 or more points in three straight games, including a 33-point game in Game 1 of this series. 

Luka took 26 shots and 10 shots from beyond the arc in Game 1, and he’s attempted 22 or more shots in two of the last three games. 

I’m surprised to see this number this low for Doncic, who we know is going to have a massive usage rate every time he’s on the floor. He’s only played less than 40 minutes twice in 13 playoff games. Bet the OVER for Doncic at this number.

Jaden McDaniels OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-135) – 0.5 unit

I’m buying the 3-point shooting of Minnesota’s defensive ace Jaden McDaniels, who has made three or more shots from beyond the arc in three straight games. 

McDaniels shot just 33.7 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season, but defenses have been content to leave him open in the playoffs, and he’s made them pay. McDaniels made 6-of-9 shots from 3 in Game 1 – his third straight 20-point game. 

Despite only clearing this prop in four games this postseason, McDaniels is shooting 41.5 percent from 3. 

If he keeps getting this many looks from downtown, he’s a must-bet to hit multiple shots from 3. 

Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-112) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit

The spread in Game 2 has moved in the Wolves favor – despite them losing Game 1 – and I think it’s a perfect spot to buy low on the Mavs.

Dallas covered and won outright as a road underdog in Game 1, moving to 12-11 ATS as a road dog this season. Overall, the Mavericks are an NBA-best 32-16 against the spread on the road. 

Minnesota has struggled at home as of late, falling to 17-24-2 against the spread as a home favorite, and I expect every game in this series to be close since both of these teams are elite defensively. 

With Doncic and Irving both finding their offensive stride (63 combined points in Game 1) early in this series, I at least think Dallas keeps Game 2 close on Friday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.