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Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Mike Conley, Daniel Gafford in Game 5)

BetSided's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the NBA for the Western Conference Finals on Thursday.

By Peter Dewey

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) and guard Mike Conley.
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) and guard Mike Conley. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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The Minnesota Timberwolves are still alive, but they’re hanging on for dear life in the Western Conference Finals after winning Game 4 to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. 

Minnesota is favored by 4.5 points at home in this matchup as it looks to become the first team to ever erase a 3-0 series deficit in NBA history. The Wolves still need three more wins to get there, but the early odds indicate that Vegas expects this series to get back to Dallas. 

I’m focusing on a pair of player props for Thursday’s action, and unlike Tuesday when we bet on stars like Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards, there are role players that I think have some value in Game 5.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 376-378-13 (-5.25 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 1001-936-21 (+34.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Mike Conley OVER 12.5 Points (+105) – 0.5 unit
  • Daniel Gafford OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Mike Conley OVER 12.5 Points (+105) – 0.5 unit

Mike Conley has been huge for Minnesota in this series, scoring 14 or more points in three straight games, shooting 7-for-14, 6-for-11 and 5-for-9 from the field in those contests.

While I would have liked Conley to take a few more shots in Game 4 to see his usage up, I still think he’s going to play a big enough role with the Wolves’ backs against the wall in this series.

At times, Conley has been the top option for the Wolves on offense when Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are struggling, and he’s made 7-for-16 shots from beyond the arc in the last three games of this series as well. 

If the usage is back up for Conley in Game 5 at home, I think he’s a solid value at plus money in this prop. 

Daniel Gafford OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Dereck Lively II is still likely up in the air for Game 5, which means we could see a big role for Daniel Gafford, who played 31:21 in Game 4. 

Gafford is averaging 5.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs, but he’s cleared 5.5 boards in seven of his last 10 games in the playoffs.

The Mavericks will need Gafford regardless of Lively’s status, but it’s likely he’ll play even more minutes in Game 5 since the rookie banged up. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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