Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Naz Reid, Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II)

Luka Doncic vs. Anthony Edwards with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line?

It doesn't get much better than the Western Conference Finals matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves, which kicks off with Game 1 on Wednesday night in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves upset the defending champion Denver Nuggets in Game 7 on Sunday to get here, but Dallas is going to be another tough matchup, especially with how it played defensively down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs.

These teams have not matched up since Jan. 31, which means the Wolves haven't seen the new-look Mavs with PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford on the roster. As a result, I'm staying away from a side in this matchup with Minnesota favored by four points.

Instead, let's break down three prop bets for Wednesday night's NBA Best Bets!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 364-373-13 (-7.69 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 989-931-21 (+32.25 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Naz Reid OVER 9.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Dereck Lively II OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+114) – 0.5 unit
• Luka Doncic OVER 17.5 Assists and Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unit

Naz Reid OVER 9.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Naz Reid has been terrific all season long for the Timberwolves, and he’s really stepped up in the playoffs as well, playing key minutes behind Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.

In 11 playoff games, Reid has scored in double figures seven times, including his last two games of the series against Denver.

There’s a pretty clear correlation between Reid’s scoring numbers and his shots per game. When the Sixth Man of the Year takes 10 or more shots in a game this postseason, he’s 5-for-5 on this prop.

I could see him playing a big role in this game if the Mavs try to play Gobert off the floor in pick-and-roll matchups, as Reid is much more agile and could switch onto Doncic in a pinch.

Reid’s role grew over the final two games of the Denver series, so I’ll back him to score 10 or more again in Game 1. 

Dereck Lively II OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+114) – 0.5 unit

Rookie Dereck Lively II had the best plus/minus of any player in the series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it appears Jason Kidd took notice.

Lively played 25 or more minutes in three of the final four games of the series, grabbing eight, six, 10 and 15 rebounds in those matchups.

Minnesota is a much different matchup than OKC, as the Wolves were No. 8 in the league in rebounding percentage during the regular season, but I think Lively will be called upon a lot against the two-big lineups that the Wolves run.

Despite splitting time with Gafford, Lively has still cleared this prop in half of his playoff games. He’s a great bet at plus money tonight. 

Luka Doncic OVER 17.5 Assists and Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unit

Doncic closed out the OKC series with three straight triple-doubles, yet oddsmakers aren’t sold on him stuffing the stat sheet in Game 1 against Minnesota.

The Wolves are an elite defense, but Doncic’s rebounding and passing has still been great this postseason despite his shooting numbers dipping. 

He’s averaging 9.7 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game in the playoffs, clearing 17.5 rebounds and assists in eight of his 12 postseason games. 

Doncic is going to play heavy minutes, and if Minnesota tries to double him, I trust him to find the open man more often than not in Game 1.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.