Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Pacers-Celtics, Pascal Siakam)

And then, there were four.

The Eastern and Western Conference Finals matchups are set, and we will begin them on Tuesday night with the Boston Celtics taking on the Indiana Pacers at TD Garden.

This is a quick turnaround for Indiana, who won a road Game 7 against the New York Knicks on Sunday, but the Celtics are down Kristaps Porzingis for Game 1, a major blow to their frontcourt.

Both of these teams have made deep runs in part due to their opponents experiencing massive injuries, but the Celtics have been far more dominant, losing just two games all postseason.

Oddsmakers expect this to a quick series for the NBA's best team, and Boston comes into Game 1 as a massive 10-point favorite at home.

How should we bet on this game?

After the latest eliminations, my betting record -- which has not been my best this season -- has been updated to include all of the won and lost futures this postseason and from the award markets. Can we turn things around in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals?

It's always a good time to believe.

Here are best bets for Game 1 of the Pacers-Celtics matchup:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 363-372-13 (-7.66 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 988-930-21 (+32.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Boston Celtics First Half -6 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
• Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Boston Celtics First Half -6 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

When in doubt, take Boston to cover the spread in the first half.

The Celtics are a tough team to bet in the prop market since they have so many players that can carry the load on a night-to-night basis, so I’m looking at the most consistent Celtics bet to place all season long.

Boston enters Game 1 with a 62-29-1 against the spread record in the first half of games, by far the best mark in the NBA. For comparison, the Pacers are just 46-49-1 ATS in the first half of their games. 

There is a massive rest advantage for the Celtics, who have been dominant at home all season long winning games as a home favorite by an average margin of 14.6 points per game. 

Indiana has struggled on the road in the postseason, going 1-2 against Milwaukee straight up and 1-3 against New York. 

I expect the C’s – who have way more experience in a game with these stakes – to blitz the Pacers from the jump. Indiana’s defense is exposable, as it allowed multiple high-scoring games to a Knicks team down three of its top five scorers (Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Bojan Bogdanovic). 

Do we think it’s really going to slow down Jaysn Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company? 

I don’t see it. 

Boston has gotten off to strong starts in Game 1s so far this postseason, and at just -6, I think the Celtics are a solid bet to do that again on Tuesday. 

Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

This is a prop that I’ve bet often this postseason for Pacers forward Pascal Siakam, and I’m going back to the well in Game 1.

This postseason, Siakam is averaging 21.1 points per game, clearing this total five times. He was much better against the Knicks once Anunoby was out, and I think he thrives down low against Boston, who lacks some rim protection without Porzingis. 

So far this season, Siakam has faced Boston five times during his time in Toronto and with the Pacers In Toronto, he scored 17, 23, 27 and 17 points against the Celtics in four games. His lone game as a Pacer? He turned in a 23-point game on 9-of-16 shooting.

When I look back to the Cavs series for Boston, I see that Cleveland’s Evan Mobley was able to get whatever he wanted at times in the painted area. Siakam is a much more skilled scorer than Mobley, and I think the Pacers lean on him and his championship experience in this series. 

At just 20.5 points, Siakam is a solid bet in a game with a total that is up over 220.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.