Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyler Herro)

Day two of the NBA playoffs is upon us, and I have a best bet for every game on Sunday's slate, including a trio of player props to consider.

After two double-digit wins to open yesterday's action, things heated up to close out the night's slate.

Do we see more of the same on Sunday?

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 327-309-13 (-3.58 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 952-857-21 (+36.36 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Tyler Herro OVER 5.5 Assists (+105) – 0.5 unit
• Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-148) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – 0.5 unit
• Bobby Portis OVER 17.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-118) – 0.5 unit

Tyler Herro OVER 5.5 Assists (+105) – 0.5 unit

Tyler Herro is the No. 1 option in the offense with Jimmy Butler sidelined, and he had nine assists in each of Miami’s two play-in tournament games. 

Prior to the play-in, Herro had cleared this total in three of his six games to close out the regular season, and he’s averaging 4.5 assists per game on the season. 

Terry Rozier (neck) is also out in this game, which leaves Miami with very few playmakers on the floor. Herro should continue his massive usage rate, and he’s seen well over double-digit potential assists per game since the play-in. 

Take the OVER for him on Sunday. 

Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-148) vs. Los Angeles Clippers – 0.5 unit

Kawhi Leonard (knee) may not play in this game, and even if he does, he’s going to be at less than 100 percent for the Los Angeles Clippers. 

So, I’m all over Dallas in this matchup. 

The Mavericks won 16 of their final 20 games of the regular season, and they posted the No. 1 defensive rating in the league over their final 15 games. 

Los Angeles was 7-7 in the 14 games that Leonard missed in the 2023-24 campaign, but this is going to be an uphill battle if he can’t play now that PJ Washington is in Dallas and would be able to shadow Paul George.

Ultimately, I think Dallas wins this series, and stealing Game 1 with Leonard banged up is a perfect way to get there. 

Bobby Portis OVER 17.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Bobby Portis has thrived for the Milwaukee Bucks when Giannis Antetokounmpo sits this season, and the star forward is listed as doubtful on Sunday against the Indiana Pacers. 

This season, Portis is averaging 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists in nine games without Giannis, clearing 17.5 points six times. Two of the games he failed to clear this number were the last two games of the regular season that Milwaukee mailed in with blowout losses. 

I expect BP to eat against an Indiana team that allows 58.4 points per game in the paint this season – the most in the NBA. 

With Giannis likely out, it’ll be on Portis and Khris Middleton to really step up and give Damian Lillard the support he needs on offense. Given Portis’ usage as of late (18 or more shots in five of his last seven without Giannis), I expect him to have a big game. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-118) – 0.5 unit

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been great against the New Orleans Pelicans this season, failing to clear 25 points in two of his three games. 

He’s gonna have a tough matchup with Herb Jones, but I think SGA can make an impact as a passer on Sunday. 

In his three meetings with the Pelicans, he’s posted five, eight and eight assists, and on the season he’s averaging 6.2 assists per game. 

If the Pelicans try to take SGA out of the game as a scorer, expect him to find his teammates in this one.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.