Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Steph Curry, John Collins and More)

The NBA is back in action with another 10-plus game slate on Sunday, and there are five plays I'm eyeing with four in the prop market.

The last few days we've just edged out with some profit, including a 3-2 showing on Saturday, but I'd love a massive NBA Sunday where we have some of the top primetime matchups of the season on ESPN and ABC.

Let's break down the picks!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 224-219-10 (-6.83 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 849-777-19 (+33.11 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit
• Dejounte Murray OVER 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Steph Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-110)
• John Collins to Record a Double-Double (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Tre Mann OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit

It’s been extremely hard to trust the Milwaukee Bucks are road favorites this season – the team is just 8-13 against the spread in those games –  but I do like Milwaukee to cover here. 

The Philadelphia 76ers did pull off a nice win over the Cavs, but Donovan Mitchell did not play for Cleveland in that game. I’m not going to put too much stock into that win, as the Sixers were dominated by the New York Knicks the night before, falling behind by as many as 26 in the second half. 

Milwaukee just took down the No. 1 defense in the NBA without Khris Middleton, and now it gets a Philly team that is just 2-4 ATS as a home underdog and has been a nightmare without Joel Embiid in terms of win/loss record. 

The Sixers don’t have the bigs down low to handle Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks should have a major offensive advantage. The team is No. 2 in the NBA in points per game this season (121.8) while the Sixers are averaging just 112.0 points per game without Embiid (22 games). 

I lean with the Bucks’ offense to get the road win on Sunday. 

Dejounte Murray OVER 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

I love this play for Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray since Trae Young is listed as out against Orlando. 

In five games without Young, Murray is averaging 26.4 points, 8.6 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game, and he’s cleared 37.5 points, rebounds and assists in a pair of those matchups. 

While Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the league, the Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back after nearly losing to Detroit last night. I think the Hawks are going to be able to push the pace in this one and Murray could put up a major game stuffing the stat sheet. 

Steph Curry OVER 26.5 Points (-110)

This is the only full unit play that I’m taking today, as I love this discounted number for Stephen Curry after a down game against Charlotte. 

Curry is averaging 27.8 points per game while shooting 41.9 percent from beyond the arc. 

Steph has two bad shooting games against Denver (7-for-21 and 6-for-17), but he had 30 in the last meeting between these two teams. 

Curry is relied on so much by Golden State that he’s a must-bet in my eyes at anything below his season average. 

John Collins to Record a Double-Double (+100) – 0.5 unit

The Utah Jazz moving Kelly Olynyk at the deadline has unlocked John Collins, who has a double-double in seven of his last 12 games. Now, he gets a favorable matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who don’t have much of an inside rebounding presence (25th in the league in rebounding percentage). 

Collins did score just nine points in his last game, but he had 18 rebounds in the matchup. On the season, he’s averaging 14.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, scoring at least 10 points in 47 of his 53 games.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Collins dominate in this one, and there’s some value in his double-double prop now that he’s set at 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in this one. 

Tre Mann OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

I’ve been all over Tre Mann props since he was moved to Charlotte, and I love him in what should be a close game against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

Mann is averaging 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game as a Hornet, and he’s cleared this in four of five games. 

I expect a bounce-back showing after Mann had a down game against the Warriors (a low-scoring affair all around).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.