Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Tyrese Maxey, Bucks-Kings)

After Monday's NBA action saw us lose two plays by the hook (Phoenix Suns -6.5 and Chris Paul OVER 8.5 assists), I'm looking for some love from the gambling gods for Tuesday's slate.

There are four plays that I'm eyeing tonight, including a player prop for Tyrese Maxey in his return from a concussion.

Let's break them down:

If you’re looking to bet on any game in the NBA tonight, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $150 in bonus bets -- if their bet wins.

Sign up for FanDuel now!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 269-250-13 (+0.10 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 894-808-21 (+40.04 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Milwaukee Bucks-Sacramento Kings OVER 235.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit
• Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
• Jabari Smith Jr. UNDER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Tyrese Maxey OVER 25.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Milwaukee Bucks-Sacramento Kings OVER 235.5 (-112) – 0.5 unit

I love the OVER in the Milwaukee Bucks-Sacramento Kings matchup, as the OVER has hit in 19 of the 29 home games for the Kings this season. 

The reason why?

Sacramento ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating at home this season, and the Bucks should be able to exploit that in this game. These teams both rank in the top 10 in the league in points per game, and the first meeting between them this season finished with 285 points – although the game did go to overtime. 

Plus, the Bucks (fifth in pace) and Kings (12th in pace) both play uptempo basketball. Don’t be shocked if this final soars past this number. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

The Oklahoma City Thunder may end up playing without Jalen Williams (ankle, questionable) on Tuesday, but I still like the team to cover the spread at home. 

The Thunder are elite as home favorites this season, going 19-8 against the spread, while the Indiana Pacers are 10-9-1 ATS as road dogs and have not looked great since the All-Star break, losing games to Toronto and San Antonio while going 6-4 in their last 10. 

I think we’re getting OKC at a bit of a discount here due to Williams injury, and I’ll gladly take that since he has a chance to suit up. 

Jabari Smith Jr. UNDER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

I’m fading Jabari Smith Jr. for the second time this season against the Spurs after he put up just two points, three rebounds and one assist against them in their last meeting. 

On the season, Smith Jr. is averaging 13.3 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game (24.4 PRA), and I think this number is too high for him – even against a beatable Spurs defense. 

Smith has not cleared 27.5 PRA in five of his last six games, and that includes matchups where he scored 19 points (finished with 22 PRA) and grabbed 16 rebounds (finished with 27 PRA). 

He’s a must fade at this number tonight. 

Tyrese Maxey OVER 25.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Tyrese Maxey is set to return from a concussion against the New York Knicks tonight, and he torched New York for 35 points in the team’s meeting right out of the All-Star break back in February. 

This season, Maxey is averaging 26.4 points per game across 22 contests without Joel Embiid, and I love the volume he’s seen as of late. 

In his last nine games, Maxey is taking 22.4 shots per game and 5.2 free throws per game. That’s led to him averaging 28.0 points per game over that stretch. If he sees that volume tonight, I think he clears this total with ease.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.