Wednesday brings in a massive NBA slate, with 10 different games to dive into and some interesting spreads with injuries to key players like Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton and Jimmy Butler.
As usual, I'm focused more on the player prop market in this one, and there is a frequent flyer that is getting another run tonight because he's been money on his PRA props.
Plus, there is one big man who is undervalued against a poor rebounding team tonight.
Let's dive into the picks after a positive day on Tuesday led by Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley and the Sacramento Kings -- both who are back on the card tonight!
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 138-120-6 (+1.92 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 763-678-15 (+41.86 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Boston Celtics-Sacramento Kings ML Parlay (-162)
- Daniel Gafford OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-105)
- Tyrese Maxey UNDER 43.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- Immanuel Quickley OVER 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-150)
- Denver Nuggets First Quarter ML (-170) vs. Utah Jazz
Boston Celtics-Sacramento Kings ML Parlay (-162)
This is a pretty simple parlay between two massive favorites.
Boston is in a favorable spot after resting Jayson Tatum in a loss to the Indiana Pacers, as the Minnesota Timberwolves are on the second night of a back-to-back and reportedly had their flight delayed last night from Orlando.
Boston is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS following a loss this season, and the team is still undefeated at home (17-0). As long as Tatum and the rest of Boston’s top six suit up, I think this should be an easy win with Mike Conley ruled out and Rudy Gobert questionable for the Wolves.
The Kings came through for us last night, overcoming a 20-point deficit to beat the Detroit Pistons by 21 to cover as 11-point favorites.
Tonight, the Kings are favored again with the Charlotte Hornets (4-12 at home, 1-9 in their last 10) as the opponent.
I can’t get behind this Charlotte team, which is down several rotation players – even at home. The Kings are just 5-5 as road favorites, but this is a game where they should handle business against the No. 29 defense in the NBA.
Daniel Gafford OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-105)
Daniel Gafford is one of my favorite prop targets of the night, as he and the Washington Wizards take on an Indiana Pacers team that ranks 25th in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season.
These two teams both play at a blistering pace – No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 2 (Washington) in the NBA – which means there will be plenty of possessions to go around.
Gafford is averaging just 7.7 rebounds per game this season, but per NBA.com, he’s averaging 15.2 rebounding chances per game. We only need eight for him to hit this prop.
In his last meeting with Indiana, Gafford grabbed 10 boards, and he also had five boards in the opener against the Pacers despite playing just 21 minutes due to foul trouble. Gafford has cleared this prop 15 times this season, and I love this matchup for him on Wednesday.
Tyrese Maxey UNDER 43.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
I don’t want to fade Tyrese Maxey against the Atlanta Hawks porous defense, but this number is simply too high.
Even with Joel Embiid out, this is asking a lot of Maxey, who has cleared 43.5 points, rebounds and assists just four times all season. He’s even failed to clear this number in games where he scored 33, 35 and 31 points this season (Maxey’s points prop tonight is set at 32.5 at DraftKings).
A 4-for-34 hit rate is not doing it for me, and Maxey is averaging 25.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game this season. While you’d expect those numbers to jump without Embiid, that hasn't been the case.
In seven games without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 24.4 points, 5.4 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game – good for less than 33 PRA per night. He’s only cleared 43.5 PRA in one of those seven games – when he scored 42 points against Houston.
Unless Maxey has one of his best scoring nights of the season, he’s going to struggle to accumulate the numbers to clear this prop.
Immanuel Quickley OVER 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-150)
Quickley has been absolute money when it comes to his PRA prop since joining the Toronto Raptors. In five games, he’s recorded 23, 34, 33, 24 and 31 PRA.
The only game he didn’t clear his PRA prop set for the game was against the Golden State Warriors – a matchup where RJ Barrett scored 37 and Toronto won in a blowout.
This is a juicy prop, but I’m willing to lay that against the Los Angeles Clippers. Since joining Toronto, Quickley is averaging 14.4 shots and 7.0 3-point attempts per game – an uptick from his usage in New York. Plus, he’s averaging 7.4 potential assists per game (up from 4.7 on the season) in his last five games.
Keep taking this Quickley prop until the market adjusts and pushes this number closer to 30.5.
Denver Nuggets First Quarter ML (-170) vs. Utah Jazz
The Denver Nuggets are the No. 2 team in the NBA in first quarter net rating, and now they get to take on a Utah Jazz team that ranks 23rd in that statistic, posting a -6.3 first quarter net rating in the 2023-24 campaign.
Utah is better at home in the first quarter (+4.1 net rating), but Denver is still +8.5 points per 100 possessions on the road in the first quarter.
I’ve been trying to pick my spots on this prop for the Nuggets so we don't have to lay points to get decent odds, so I’ll gladly take Denver here – who is winning the first quarter 68.4 percent of the time this season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.