NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Chris Paul, Obi Toppin, Lakers-Nuggets and Spurs-Wolves on Sunday)

Sunday's NBA slate is loaded with interesting matchups, including the first New York Knicks-Cleveland Cavaliers matchup of the season since the Donovan Mitchell trade.

The Los Angeles Lakers remain winless on the season, and they have another matchup with a tough Denver team on Sunday. I have a pick for who will win and cover in that game.

How about four picks today including player props for Chris Paul and Obi Toppin? Let's dive in:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record for 2022-23 Season: 22-14-1 (+5.7278 units)

NBA Best Bets Today

• Denver Nuggets -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-110)
• Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs UNDER 238.5 (-110)
• Obi Toppin OVER 11.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
• Chris Paul UNDER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

Denver Nuggets -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-110)

In all honesty, how can anyone bet on the Lakers right now?

Sure, there is the LeBron James factor, but Los Angeles is a downright awful basketball team right now, ranking dead last in the NBA in offensive rating. 

Denver is still getting great production from Nikola Jokic, but we have yet to see the best of Jamal Murray (12.4 points per game on 41.0 percent shooting) as he returns from his torn ACL. 

Once Murray starts getting back to his borderline All-Star self, the Nuggets are going to be a problem in the West. 

With Anthony Davis’ status up in the air, I have no choice but to fade the Lakers once again. Los Angeles is due for a win, but you have to actually play well to pick one up. That hasn't happened in the 2022-23 season. 

This is Denver or nothing for me. 

Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs UNDER 238.5 (-110)

These two teams love to run, playing at the No. 3 and No. 4 pace in the NBA so far this season. 

The Spurs have been a much better offense, ranking ninth in offensive rating to Minnesota’s 19th, and San Antonio has cleared the total in this game three times in six games this season. 

Despite that, I’m going to take the UNDER in this early-season matchup. 

Minnesota ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive rating (San Antonio is 25th), and the Wolves have only cleared this number twice this season, with one of the games going to OT. 

The combined scores in the first two games between these teams were 221 and 256. However, there were things in the second matchup that won’t hold up again. 

In that game, the Wolves shot a shocking 58.8 percent from 3 (20-for-34). The Spurs nearly matched them, hitting 44.4 percent of their 3-point shots. On the season, Minnesota is shooting just 34.3 percent from beyond the arc. 

I believe in this Wolves defense to improve in this game, and I don’t think both teams shoot the lights out for a second straight matchup. The closer this gets to 240, the more I love the UNDER. 

Obi Toppin OVER 11.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Obi Toppin has been terrific to open the season for the New York Knicks, and Tom Thibodeau needs to give him more minutes given his production this season. 

Toppin is averaging 9.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game despite playing just 15.6 minutes per night. He’s shooting 53.3 percent from beyond the arc, a huge step up from previous seasons. 

Since the Knicks’ first game against Memphis (Toppin played just 13 minutes), he’s cleared this in four straight, tallying 23, 15, 14 and 16 points, rebounds and assists. 

Thibodeau has played him a few more minutes, if that continues, Toppin should see enough action to clear this extremely low number. 

Chris Paul UNDER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

Chris Paul has struggled scoring the ball to start the season, shooting just 33.3 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from beyond the arc while averaging 9.2 points per game. 

CP3 has cleared his PRA prop in tonight’s matchup with the Houston Rockets just once, and it came against the Golden State Warriors when he scored 16 points and shot 4-for-5 from 3.

Outside of that game, Paul is just 1-for-12 from beyond the arc this season. The assists and rebounds will likely be there, but Paul is going to need more than nine points to clear this total. I’ll fade him in a game that Phoenix could get up early in and coast. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.