Betsided

NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Cavs-Timberwolves, Bucks-Hornets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

By Peter Dewey

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could be in line for a big game on Monday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could be in line for a big game on Monday. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY
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If you tailed yesterday's NBA Best Bets column, you suffered an absolutely brutal beat with me, as the Golden State Warriors blew a 21-point second half lead to lose and failed to cover the -3.5-point spread against the Dallas Mavericks.

I vented about this bad beat on the Bet & Breakfast podcast this morning.

Nonetheless, we're focused on bouncing back today, as I have two favorites that I'm looking to back as well as a prop for the red-hot Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Let's break down Monday's action:

All odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 131-137-2

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-110)
  • Milwaukee Bucks -10 vs. Charlotte Hornets (-110)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-105)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Wolves -1.5 (-110)

I took the Wolves at -1.5 before the line moved as my best bet on today’s episode of the Bet & Breakfast podcast.

The Cavs have really struggled offensively without Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, as they lack a true top-flight ball-handle and creator with both players sidelined. 

That could spell trouble against a Minnesota team that is third in the NBA in pace and 11th in offensive rating coming into this matchup. The Wolves have a plethora of scoring options in D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, and I think it may be too much for the Cavs to keep pace. 

Cleveland has scored just 195 points in two games since the All-Star break, and it didn’t  play a team close to Minnesota’s level in those contests. I think the market may have over adjusted for the Cavs strong start to the year, as they have covered in just five of their last 15 games and have failed to do so in four straight. 

Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks -10 (-110)

I’m taking the Bucks in this game and not looking back. 

The Hornets lost in overtime on Sunday, so this is a really tough turnaround for a team that is just 3-8 against the spread on back-to-backs this season. 

Charlotte has been atrocious against the spread and straight up, covering in just three of its last 13 games and going 3-10 over that span. 

The Bucks haven’t been the well-oiled machine that we saw last season, but there’s no way I can back Charlotte with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday all healthy for Milwaukee. 

There’s reason to be concerned about the Bucks' 9-19 ATS record as a home favorite, but sometimes you have to fade the team that is just playing horrible basketball, and that’s Charlotte at the moment. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-105)

One of the biggest keys for me when betting any NBA player prop is opportunity/volume for the player to get to a certain number. 

Tonight, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to get all the opportunities he can handle when the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Sacramento Kings. Josh Giddey and Lu Dort are both out for OKC, which means SGA is going to get as many touches as he can handle. 

The promising guard has been fantastic since returning from injury after the All-Star break, scoring 32 and 36 points in his two games and attempting 46 shots and 18 free throws over that stretch. 

Now, he gets a Kings defense that is 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. SGA dropped 33 the last time these two teams played, and I’d expect a similar game tonight.

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