NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for James Harden, Jazz-Mavericks and Timberwolves-Blazers)

We've got eight games in the NBA on Monday, and while the Golden State Warriors are sitting just about everyone against the Denver Nuggets, we have a couple solid matchups between playoff teams in the Philadelphia 76ers-Chicago Bulls game and the Dallas Mavericks-Utah Jazz matchup.

I have picks in both of those games and one more for today's NBA Best Bets column.

Let's break them down:

All odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 142-145-2

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Dallas Mavericks -1.5 vs. Utah Jazz (-110)
• Portland Trail Blazers-Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 233 (-110)
• James Harden OVER 23.5 Points (-125)

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks: Mavs -1.5 (-110)

I broke down this game on this morning’s Bet & Breakfast podcast, and I really love the Mavs as slight favorites at home.

Since the start of 2022, the Mavericks are an impressive 22-7, and they’ve consistently been a top five defense for the majority of the 2021-22 season. They currently sit in sixth in the NBA in defensive rating, but it’s their offense that has been impressive to me lately. 

Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, but it has the No. 4 offensive rating over its last 10 games, showing just how efficient this team has been. While the Jazz are No. 1 in the NBA in this metric, they are going to have some tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back. 

Utah is just 4-5 against the spread in that spot this season, so I love Dallas laying just 1.5 points at home. 

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: OVER 233 (-110)

I’m not going to touch the 14.5 points in this one, as it’s just too many to lay with Minnesota, but I also can’t trust Portland after the Jekyll and Hyde performance it has put on the past eight games. 

Instead, we’re going to look at the total in this game, as the Blazers are 29th in the NBA in defensive rating while the Wolves are 15th in defensive rating and seventh in offensive rating. 

Minnesota also plays at the third fastest pace in the NBA, so there should be plenty of possessions to go around on Monday. 

I like the OVER for a few reasons, starting with the fact that Minnesota is the best OVER team in the NBA this season at 41-24. Not only that, but the Wolves have gone over 233 points in five straight games. 

While Portland hasn’t been scoring enough to consistently get over this number, I think the Wolves pushing the pace will allow for a similar result as Saturday’s contest. That game had a whopping 256 combined points, so I think there is value at 233 in this matchup. 

James Harden OVER 23.5 Points (-125)

I am surprised that we’re getting James Harden’s points prop at this number, as he’s put up 27, 29, 26 and 25 points in his first four games in Philadelphia. 

The Bulls are 20th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and Harden should have his way with this defense with Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball out of the lineup. 

Harden hasn’t taken a ton of shots (12.3 per game), but he is getting to the line a ton (10.3 free throws per game) since arriving in Philly. Give me the over in this one.