NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Jaylen Brown, Heat-Celtics in Game 5 of Eastern Conference Finals)
By Peter Dewey
The word pivotal may be overused in the playoffs, but it is true in the case of tonight’s Game 5 matchup between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.
I have a favorite prop and a pick on who wins this matchup with the series tied at two games apiece.
Let’s get into the picks (Current Playoff Record: 64-52-1):
All odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 251-226-6 (+13.1445 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Boston Celtics Moneyline vs. Miami Heat (-125)
- Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 Points (-125)
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat: Celtics Moneyline (-125)
Last night, I decided I’m going all in on the Celtics, betting on them when they were 1.5-point favorites to win outright in Game 5.
Yes, the Heat have played well enough for this series to be tied at two, but I am far from sold on this Miami offense.
The Heat missed their first 14 shots in Game 4 and were trailing 18-1 early, essentially ending the game in the first quarter. The only way Miami has been able to compete in this series has been by forcing a ton of turnovers in a quarter and riding it to a huge run.
While that is still possible, Boston is the far better team on both ends of the floor right now, especially if Smart is able to go in Game 5.
In this series, Boston has an offensive rating of 115.8 and a defensive rating of 108.2. That means they’re outscoring the Heat by over seven points per 100 possessions on average.
This series is more lopsided than the 2-2 tie suggests.
Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 Points (-125)
Jaylen Brown has been solid in this postseason, and he had a 40-point game in Game 3 of this series, but I think this number is inflated in Game 5.
In 15 playoff games, Brown has scored 25 or more points in just four games despite averaging 22.9 points per game in the playoffs.
Oddsmakers had been putting this line at 23.5, which made things tricky since Brown has a couple 24-point games, but at 24.5 I’ll gladly side with the under, especially since the total in this game is at 203.5.