The NBA’s three-game slate on Thursday features a few teams on the second game of a back-to-back, but there are a few teams that could have some value because of that.
The San Antonio Spurs have covered in five of six and they’ll face a Denver Nuggets team that went to overtime against the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 46-55-2
NBA Best Bets Today
- Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-110)
- San Antonio Spurs -2 vs. Denver Nuggets (-110)
- Will Barton OVER 3.5 Assists (+100)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Lakers -3.5 (-110)
As long as James, Davis and Westbrook suit up, I think the Lakers build on the momentum from Tuesday’s blowout against the Grizzlies.
James has been unreal over his last five games, and while that may be a tough sign for those looking for value on his prop numbers, it has also helped the Lakers get back over .500 on the season.
Memphis is actually 5-1 without Morant this season, but I think this is a spot to sell high with a lethal Lakers team coming to town. Memphis is still 25th in the NBA in defensive rating and it lacks the offensive firepower with Morant out to get into a track meet with the Lakers.
Los Angeles is much better in the 13 games that LeBron has played (8-5), than the 12 he has missed (5-7). I think the Lakers are the right side to back in this matchup.
Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs: Spurs -2 (-110)
Had Denver not gone to overtime on Wednesday, I’d really love them on the moneyline in this matchup, but I’m wary about how an already banged-up team will respond tonight.
The Spurs are 13-10 against the spread this season, but they are slightly worse at home, going just 6-5 ATS on the season.
Denver is 6-8 straight up as an underdog this season, but with Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray out, this team has been volatile on both ends, posting the league’s No. 18 offensive rating and No. 16 defensive rating.
Dejounte Murray is a budding star in San Antonio, and the Spurs have covered in five of their last six games. Since Denver is on a back-to-back, I’ll fade them and back Gregg Popovich’s squad to pick up a win on Thursday.
Will Barton OVER 3.5 Assists (+100)
Will Barton has hit the over on this number in five of his last seven games, and he’s taken on a bigger role as a playmaker this season with Jamal Murray out.
Barton is averaging 4.2 assists per game on the season and he’s seen his usage rate increase to 22.1 percent this season after it was 19.0 percent in the 2020-21 campaign.
I like him at even money to grab four or more dimes on Thursday.