Betsided

NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Luka Doncic, Kevon Looney in Western Conference Finals Game 1)

By Peter Dewey

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic. / Christian Petersen/GettyImages
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Steph Curry and Luka Doncic facing off with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line?

Sign me up. 

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks tips off on Wednesday night, and I have two player props that I’m betting in this matchup. 

Let’s jump right into the picks: 

All odds via WynnBET:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 240-222-5 (+7.9363 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Luka Doncic UNDER 51.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
  • Kevon Looney UNDER 7.5 Rebounds (-140)

Luka Doncic UNDER 51.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Luka Doncic has been dominant on this playoff run, but I still think oddsmakers are putting his PRA number a little too high. 

In 10 playoff games, Doncic has cleared 51.5 PRA just two times, and one of those games was his 45-point performance against the Phoenix Suns in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. 

Doncic could have a crazy scoring game, but I think the Warriors’ No. 2 defense is up to the task in this matchup. We’ve seen Doncic miss his PRA because of blowouts as well, so don’t be surprised if Golden State gets up big if the Mavs wave the white flag, costing Luka this prop. 

Kevon Looney UNDER 7.5 Rebounds (-140)

Warriors big man Kevon Looney had 22 rebounds in the team’s Game 6 win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference semifinals, but don’t let that fool you into betting the over on his rebound prop in Game 1. 

Looney has cleared this number just twice in the playoffs, and the Warriors have gone away from him often with smaller lineups on the floor. The Mavericks are going to try and stretch the floor with shooters, which could lead to a lot of Draymond Green at center for Golden State. 

Looney is playing just 16.2 minutes per game and averaging 6.4 rebounds this postseason. Prior to the 22-rebound game, he was putting up just 4.8 boards per game. Fade him tonight.

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