NBA Best Bets Today: Predictions for Warriors-Heat, Grayson Allen and More

Milwaukee Bucks guard Grayson Allen.
Milwaukee Bucks guard Grayson Allen. / Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a great start to the week where all of our picks in the NBA Best Bets column and our prop bet picks in the NBA hit, I have three more picks to share for Monday night's slate.

On the Bet & Breakfast podcast, I broke down my favorite spread bet of the night in the Atlanta Hawks-Portland Trail Blazers matchup.

However, we're also looking a play on the total in the Golden State Warriors-Miami Heat game and a prop bet for Milwaukee Bucks guard Grayson Allen against the Detroit Pistons.

The column is getting closer to .500 on the season, so let's hope Sunday's strong start to the weeks is a sign of things to come in 2022.

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 75-80-2

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Atlanta Hawks -6 vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-110)
  • Miami Heat-Golden State Warriors UNDER 216 (-110)
  • Grayson Allen OVER 10.5 Points (-110)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers: Hawks -6 (-110)

The Atlanta Hawks will hit the road to take on the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday night, with several players returning from the COVID-19 protocols. 

Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, Delon Wright and Onyeka Okongwu have all cleared the protocols for the Hawks, and they’ll be taking on a Blazers team that is down Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic (doubtful) in this game.

This line opened at Hawks -4, but it has moved significantly with Lillard expected to miss this game. 

Both of these two teams are in the bottom three of the NBA at covering the spread, but I’m going to back Atlanta for several reasons in this game.

I broke down this pick on this morning’s episode of the Bet & Breakfast podcast, and one of the key points to look at is the fact that the Blazers are just 1-5 this season when Dame is out of the lineup. 

With their top three offensive players out, I’m not sure how Portland, who is dead last in the NBA in defensive rating, is going to keep up with a Hawks offense that is getting some key members back on Monday. 

Atlanta is No. 3 in the NBA in offensive rating, and Trae Young and company should have no problem covering the number against the NBA’s worst team against the spread.  

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors: UNDER 216 (-110)

The Golden State Warriors will get Draymond Green back in the lineup on Monday when they take on a short-handed Miami Heat team. 

Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, P.J. Tucker, Bam Adebayo and others are out for the Heat in this game, but can Golden State cover another double-digit spread this season? 

Miami has been tough all season despite dealing with several injuries, and Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler certainly could make things interesting in Golden State. 

I am going to look at the total in this game, as the Warriors are the league’s best team at hitting the under, 11-22-2, while the Heat are the second best team at hitting the over at 22-15. 

However, Miami usually has much lower totals this season, as eight of Miami’s last 11 games have closed with a total under 210 points. 

The Warriors are No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating while Miami is No. 9, and the Warriors allow just 101.3 points per game (No. 1 in the NBA) this season. The Heat (103.9 points allowed per game) are third in that same stat, and I think that lines up for an under matchup in this game. 

Miami plays at the fourth slowest pace in the NBA, and it will need to slow things down to compete with Golden State on Monday night. 

Grayson Allen OVER 10.5 Points (-110)

Grayson Allen has been fantastic for the Milwaukee Bucks this season, averaging 12.1 points per game and shooting 42.2 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from beyond the arc. 

Allen has gone under this number in four of his last five games, but with Khris Middleont (personal reason, questionable) in doubt for tonight’s game against the Detroit Pistons, I think it is time to get back on the Allen train tonight. 

In the 11 games that Middleton missed earlier this year, Allen averaged 17.5 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game while shooting 47.5 percent from 3 and averaging 4.3 made triples per game. 

Donte DiVincenzo is also out in this game for Milwaukee, which should give Allen more opportunities as well. 

Allen had 16 points in 30:46 of playing time in his last game without Middleton, and if he sees similar usage tonight I think he clears this number easily.