NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for James Harden, Deandre Ayton in Wednesday's Playoff Games)

Hand up, it’s been a rough go the past two days in the NBA, but I’m back and ready to turn things around on Wednesday. 

I’m staying away from making a pick on either game today, and going back to the bread and butter that has allowed for such a nice playoff run: player props. 

Here are my two favorites tonight, and make sure to check out Daily Betslip today at 5 p.m. EST on BetSided’s Youtube for any picks I may add to this. 

All odds via WynnBET:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 220-200-5 (+0.1829 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

• James Harden UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
• Deandre Ayton OVER 19.5 Points (-110)

NBA Best Bets Today

James Harden UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

This is more about the Miami Heat defense than it is fading James Harden, as the Heat have limited Harden and Trae Young so far in their first six playoff games this year. 

Harden took just 13 shots in Game 1, which we should expect to go up, but he’s reached 41 PRA in just two games this postseason, and they came in games where he put up 14 and 15 assists respectively. 

The Heat allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season, and with both of these teams playing at a bottom five pace in the league, I don’t see the path for Harden to get over this number without a crazy scoring game. 

I’ll trust Miami’s elite defense to keep Harden in check tonight. 

Deandre Ayton OVER 19.5 Points (-110)

I wish I hopped on the Deandre Ayton train sooner, but oddsmakers still haven't pushed him into the 20s for his points prop, which I think creates a bit of value. 

The Dallas Mavericks had no answer for Ayton down low in Game 1, as he shot 12-for-20 from the floor on his way to 25 points and eight rebounds. Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber simply aren’t big enough to truly contest Ayton in the paint. 

Since the playoffs started, Ayton has scored 20 or more points in five of his seven games, and he’s scored 19 or more in six of seven. I think the Suns keep going back to him tonight until the Mavericks change their game plan defensively.