The last few days in the NBA Best Bets column have not gone how we wanted, with a 3-5 performance in our eight picks.
Russell Westbrook narrowly missed his PRA prop yesterday which was by far the worst beat, but we’re looking to come back with three plays for the 11 games on Wednesday night.
I’m taking a familiar play with the Boston Celtics tonight, and a pair of player props that I think we’re getting value on tonight.
You’re here for the picks, so let’s dive in:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record for 2022-23 Season: 74-63-1 (+2.1497 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Jordan Poole UNDER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- Khris Middleton OVER 14.5 Points (-130)
- Boston Celtics Moneyline (-120) vs. Phoenix Suns
Jordan Poole UNDER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Jordan Poole’s PRA line has jumped in a big way for the Golden State Warriors with Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins out against the Utah Jazz, but I’m fading him in this spot.
Poole has cleared this line in just two games this year, and he needed 30 and 36 points in those games to do so. However, he also has a 30-point game where he still fell short of this line.
In the two games Curry has missed this season, Poole has 26 and 29 PRA in those games. Don’t fall in love with the Warriors guard just because Steph is out and bet the number here.
Khris Middleton OVER 14.5 Points (-130)
Khris Middleton has only played two games so far this season, but he’s seen a steady role in them, taking 11 shots in each game and playing around 26-27 minutes in each matchup.
Middleton had 17 on 6-of-11 shooting in his first game, but shot a dreadful 1-for-11 from the field on Dec. 5 against the Orlando Magic.
Despite that, 14.5 is way too low of a number for Middleton if he’s going to see double-digit shots and near 30 mins in tonight’s game against the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings love to play uptempo (sixth in the NBA in pace), and the Bucks are going to try to get Middleton back to his usual self after a rough outing in their last game. Middleton has averaged over 20.0 points per game in four of his last five seasons.
Back him to start looking like his usual self.
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-120) vs. Phoenix Suns
The return of Chris Paul certainly boosts the Suns, but I am worried they don’t have the firepower to beat this Boston team, even at home.
Phoenix is still without Cameron Johnson on the wing, and the team has relied heavily on Devin Booker to carry it with his scoring.
The Suns and Celtics both have the best net ratings in the NBA, but Boston has been dominant all season long, even on the road, going 9-3 straight up.
The return of Paul shifted this line a bit in favor of the Suns, but I think a healthy Celtics team is much better than this Suns team.
Phoenix has some questionable losses this season, including one recently to the Houston Rockets. Until the Celtics give us a reason to fade them, keeping backing them at short lines like this.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.