NBA Best Bets Today: Predictions for Karl-Anthony Towns, Malcolm Brogdon and Knicks-Pistons

Indiana Pacers guard Malcolm Brogdon.
Indiana Pacers guard Malcolm Brogdon. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to NBA Best Bets, where we’re going heavy on player props with so many players out due to the NBA’s COVID-19 outbreak. 

Rather than trusting fringe bench guys and hardship signings, I’ve been looking at individual players this week and went a perfect 3-for-3 with yesterday’s picks!

We still have a little ways to go to get back to .500 on the season, but this was a great start to Christmas Week. 

Here are my favorite plays for tonight’s slate, including a play on the spread in the New York Knicks-Detroit Pistons matchup: 

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 58-69-2

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Detroit Pistons +7 vs. New York Knicks (-110)
  • Saddiq Bey OVER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
  • Malcolm Brogdon OVER 6.0 Assist (-105)
  • Karl Anthony Towns UNDER 10.5 Rebounds (-105)

Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks: Pistons +7 (-110)

The New York Knicks have been decimated by COVID-19, with RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Kevin Knox, Immanuel Quickley, Miles McBride and Quentin Grimes all in the league’s health and safety protocols ahead of Tuesday’s game against the Detroit Pistons. 

New York fought against the Boston Celtics on Saturday, but ultimately it only was able to get offense from Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier and Julius Randle with Derrick Rose (ankle) out of the lineup. 

The Knicks have the second worst spread record at home this season, going just 4-11, and I don’t think I can trust them to cover, even against a horrible Pistons team, with so many players out. 

Detroit is 7-7 against the spread this season on the road, and it has covered in two of its last three games. Even though the Pistons aren’t good, they are one of the few teams without a multitude of players in the league’s health and safety protocols. 

I think that helps them tonight against a Knicks team that has struggled on offense (22nd in effective field goal percentage) even when healthy this season. 

Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier both had arguably their best games of the season against the Celtics on Saturday and New York still lost, so I’ll back Detroit to cover the number in this game.

Saddiq Bey OVER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Saddiq Bey has seen his role increase in a huge way with Jerami Grant out of the lineup, as he’s played over 36 minutes in each of the last three games. 

Bey has responded in a big way, taking 17, 16 and 13 shots in his last three games and scoring 28, 23 and 26 points in those matchups. On the season, he’s averaging just 13.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game, but his role has clearly changed with Grant out. 

Bey has cleared this number easily in three straight, totaling at least two assists and four rebounds in each game. As long as the usage offensively is there, he could pass this number on points alone against a Knicks team that is down several players and just 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating. 

Malcolm Brogdon OVER 6.0 Assists (-105)

I know that the Indiana Pacers are facing a tough Miami Heat team on Tuesday, but the Heat are down Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and P.J. Tucker. 

In theory, this should be an easier game for Indiana, and I think Brogdon, who has cleared six dimes in five of his last seven games, can get there again tonight. 

Brogdon is averaging 6.2 assists per game this season, but with Kyle Lowry likely playing against him, I think the Pacers try to exploit some easier matchups against Miami’s bench unit. 

Karl Anthony Towns UNDER 10.5 Rebounds (-105)

This may seem like a surprising wager, especially considering the fact that the Dallas Mavericks are 23rd in the NBA in rebounding percentage, but KAT has only cleared this number eight times all season. 

He hasn’t picked up more than 10 boards in a game since Dec. 6, and he’s actually failed to clear seven rebounds in four of his last six games. He grabbed just seven boards against Dallas on Sunday, and I’ll take the under even though the over on this prop is juiced at -130.