NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Knicks-Cavs, Darius Garland and Kings-Bulls on Sunday)
By Peter Dewey
The NBA has a bunch of games tipping off at 6 p.m. EST, and yours truly is looking at two matchup for some betting action tonight.
The first games is the New York Knicks-Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, as New York's struggling defense has opened up opportunities on the game and in the prop market on Sunay.
I also love the Sacramento Kings-Chicago Bulls matchup, as oddsmakers don't seem to trust a Kings team that is sixth in the NBA in net rating.
Let's dive into this year's record as well as the picks for tonight:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record for 2022-23 Season: 70-56-1 (+5.5528 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Cleveland Cavaliers ML (-155) vs. New York Knicks
- Darius Garland OVER 21.5 Points (-105)
- Sacramento Kings -3 (-110) vs. Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers ML (-155) vs. New York Knicks
The Knicks may be great in back-to-backs under Tom Thibodeau (20-9-1 ATS), but this spread is way too short for my liking.
New York has a significant disadvantage in the 3-point shooting department, ranking dead last in the NBA this season at 31.9 percent. Cleveland is No. 3 at 38.5 percent, and it torched the Knicks from 3 earlier this season.
The other issue? The Knicks don’t defend the 3 well at all this season.
The Knicks have allowed 186 wide-open 3PTs this season, more than any team in the league.
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) December 4, 2022
The NBA's tracking data goes back to 2013. Per that data, no team has ever allowed more than 626 wide-open 3PTs in a full season.
NY is on pace to shatter that mark.https://t.co/0BXdqT6GlF
Thibodeau may be coaching for his job in this game, but New York should be way more than a 3-point dog.
With the Knicks back-to-back trend looming, I’m going to play this game safe and just take the Cavs on the moneyline to win.
Cleveland is a much more talented team with Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, and the Knicks have gone just 3-12 against teams .500 or better.
Darius Garland OVER 21.5 Points (-105)
If there’s a team you’re going to bounce back against, it’s the Knicks this season and Darius Garland is a prime spot to do so here.
Garland is averaging 22.5 points per game this season, but he’s failed to clear 21.5 points in five straight games. Still, he’s gone OVER this number in eight games this season and is facing the league’s No. 26 defense.
The Knicks give up a ton of open 3s, and they’ve allowed over 100 points in every game this season. This is a great spot for Garland and the Cavs to find a flow on offense.
Sacramento Kings -3 (-110) vs. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls come into this game 22nd in the NBA in net rating, 19th in effective field goal percentage and 24th in offensive rating.
I have some serious concerns about how they will keep up with the Kings, who are third in offensive rating and sixth in the league in pace.
Sacramento is playing a fun brand of basketball at the moment, and the team shoots a ton of 3s, ranking sixth in 3-pointers made per game. Chicago checks in at No. 28 in that statistic.
I think it’s time that we fade the Bulls, who simply don’t have enough offense against some of these top tier teams. They are coming off a loss to a team that plays a similar style to the Kings in the Golden State Warriors on Friday night, and they are just 4-8 on the road this season.
Sacramento’s offense should be enough for it to cover this short number on Sunday.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.