NBA Picks

NBA Best Bets Today (Trust Knicks in Title Game, Fade Warriors, Offense in Jazz-Nuggets)

Peter Dewey
New York Knicks guard Miles McBride.
New York Knicks guard Miles McBride. / Mike Stobe/GettyImages
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The final day of the NBA's Las Vegas Summer League is upon us, and that means we're breaking out another NBA Best Bets column for the people.

My beloved New York Knicks are in the title game against the Portland Trail Blazers, but they aren't the only team I have a lean on. I'm looking at a few other Western Conference teams as well on Sunday, with all of the odds for these games via DraftKings.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 264-244-6 (+12.0547 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA in the 2021-22 season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Washington Wizards +3.5 vs. Golden State Warriors (-110)
  • New York Knicks -2 vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-110)
  • Denver Nuggets-Utah Jazz UNDER 167.5 (-110)

Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors: Wizards +3.5 (-110)

Jonathan Kuminga has been really solid for Golden State in the Summer League, averaging 19.3 points per game in Vegas. 

As much as the Warriors’ top-line talent should be a concern for Wizards bettors, do they deserve to be favored in this game against a Washington team that is averaging over 95 points per game and shooting 46.2 percent from the floor?

Golden State is second to last in plus/minus in Summer League, and Moses Moody, one of the team’s best players, has only appeared in two games. 

The Wizards have a lot more to prove than Golden State’s young guys, and I can’t get past the fact that they’ve been 11 points better than Golden State so far in Vegas. 

Lean: Wizards +3.5 (-110)

Portland Trail Blazers vs. New York Knicks: Knicks -2 (-110)

Even though the Blazers won the first matchup between these two teams, it came with the Knicks’ worst offensive performance of the Summer League. 

New York is averaging 95.3 points per game, and it has a team plus/minus of 11.8 this summer, the best in the league. Portland is second at 8.3. 

Neither of these teams have shot the 3-pointer well in Summer League, entering with percentages below 30 percent. However, the Knicks have shown they can get to the rim at will with the likes of Ferron Hunt, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride and Jericho Sims. New York is third among all teams in field goal percentage this summer at 47.7 percent. 

The Knicks have more NBA-level talent on their roster, and they’ve been the better overall team all summer. I’ll back them to win and cover in this matchup. 

Lean: Knicks -2 (-110)

Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz: UNDER 167.5 (-110)

These are the two lowest-scoring teams in the Vegas Summer League, and their offensive numbers have been pretty putrid over the last week and change. 

Nuggets vs. Jazz Offensive Comparison

Points Per Game

  • Jazz: 73.5
  • Nuggets: 78.3

Field Goal Percentage

  • Jazz: 34.4%
  • Nuggets: 40.8%

3-Point FG Percentage

  • Jazz: 26.3%
  • Nuggets: 27.6%

Luckily this is just the Summer League, because those are some ugly, ugly numbers. 

The Jazz are favored despite their terrible shooting, which tells me they’re going to need a low-scoring game to get it done. 

Rather than back a side, I’m going to bet on both offenses continuing to struggle and take the UNDER on Sunday. 

Lean: UNDER 167.5 (-110)

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