NBA Best Bets Today: Two Upsets, LaMelo Ball Prop Among Today’s Predictions

Welcome back to another edition of “NBA Best Bets,” and today I have a special message for all of our readers. 

I am as cold as I’ve ever been. That’s life. That’s sports betting. Especially in the NBA. 

But I am here to tell you this, because after a solid start to the season, I have won just 2 of my last 10 bets. It’s frustrating, but I am going to advise you to fade me until the tide turns. Maybe it’ll be today, maybe it’ll be next week, maybe next month. 

Who knows!

Regardless, I’m going to crunch the numbers, watch as many NBA games as humanly possible and try to deliver some winners in tonight’s slate. So, without further ado, tonight’s picks:

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.  

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 13-17 (-5.3481 units)

NBA Best Bets Today

• Sacramento Kings Moneyline at Minnesota Timberwolves (+115)
• Chicago Bulls Moneyline at Portland Trail Blazers (+105)
• Domantas Sabonis OVER 16.5 Points (-130)
• LaMelo Ball OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-125)

Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kings Moneyline (+115)

The Timberwolves are just 1-4 against the spread this season as a favorite, while the Kings are 3-5 against the spread as an underdog this season. 

However, Sacramento is 3-2 as a road underdog, and I think the Kings are the team to back in this matchup. Harrison Barnes is having a career year, and De’Aaron Fox is starting to turn things around (19.8 points per game) even though he is still shooting just 23.1 percent from 3. 

Minnesota has lost eight of its last nine games, and two of its wins have come against the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans. I’m not sold on this team, especially considering they have the No. 25 net rating in the NBA and the fourth worst offensive rating. 

The Kings can score (fifth in offensive rating), and it’s surprising that both of these teams play at a fast pace (Kings eighth, Timberwolves ninth) considering how bad Minnesota’s offensive rating is. 

I don’t trust the Timberwolves to take advantage of their weaker defense in this matchup. 

Chicago Bulls vs. Portland Trail Blazers: Bulls Moneyline (+105)

The Bulls are fourth in the NBA in net rating (5.9) and they’ve pulled off some impressive wins on this road trip. Chicago is 5-2 against the spread and 5-2 straight up on the road this season. 

Portland is 6-1 at home this season, which is concerning, but I’m having a hard time backing them with Damian Lillard still struggling (38.7 percent from the field). I think the Bulls’ defense helps them in this matchup to pick up an upset win. 

Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons: Domantas Sabonis OVER 16.5 Points (-130)

I love the value on this prop for Sabonis, as he’s gone over this number in four of his last five games, including a 21-point game his last time out against the Knicks. 

I know Sabonis isn’t an elite scorer, but he’s averaging 18.5 per game this season and finished last season with 20.3 points per game. The Pistons are 25th in the NBA in defensive rating and have allowed opponents to shoot a league-best 48.6 percent against them. 

This is a perfect spot for Sabonis and the Pacers to roll. 

Washington Wizards vs. Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-125)

LaMelo Ball is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game this season, but he’s gone over this total in five straight contests including two games of double-digit rebounds. Over that stretch, LaMelo is averaging 11.2 rebounds per game, and he’s playing major minutes this year (10 straight games with 30 or more minutes played). 

The Wizards are middle of the pack this season in rebound rate (50.9 percent), and I think the one-point spread means we’re going to get plenty of LaMelo if the Hornets want to win. 

BONUS PICK: New York Knicks -11.5 vs. Orlando Magic (-110)

I have been hesitant to back the Knicks lately, but the Magic have lost five of their last six games and every loss was by 12 or more points. 

The Knicks just have to survive the third quarter (where they have a -13.6 net rating this season) and they should just dominate a Magic team that is 28th in defensive rating and 27th in offensive rating. 

I’ll take New York to stay hot after a big win on Monday.