NBA Championship Odds: Thunder, Knicks, Others Viewed as Second-Tier Contenders
By Peter Dewey
Six of the eight first-round series in the NBA playoffs are through two games, and we've seen some major adjustments in the NBA Finals odds with teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns down 0-2 and falling significantly on the odds board.
Entering the playoffs, I shared a key trend to know when betting on the NBA Finals. Since the 1996-97 season, the team that won the title finished the regular season in the top eight in the league in net rating.
Here are those teams:
While Boston and Denver are the clear favorites to reach the Finals (only teams with shorter than +1000 odds), the second-tier teams are starting to take shape with the Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves rounding out the top six in the odds after Tuesday's action.
OKC has yet to play two games in its series, but every other team is either up 2-0 or stole a game on the road. Does that mean we should consider betting on them now?
Let's break down the odds and my thoughts on these second-tier contenders:
Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Championship Odds
OKC still hasn't taken care of business at home, but oddsmakers expect it to, favoring the team by 7.5 points at home on Wednesday night.
The Thunder had the No. 2 net rating in the NBA during the regular season, and they should be able to handle New Orleans, who doesn't have Zion Williamson healthy in this series. He's already been ruled out for Game 2 and could miss more time.
New York Knicks NBA Championship Odds
New York fits the bill of a top-eight net rating team, even with Julius Randle out for the season.
The Knicks picked up an improbable Game 2 win over Philly, erasing a five-point deficit in the final seconds to take a 2-0 series lead on the Sixers. There is still a long way to go for the Knicks, but oddsmakers clearly are starting to believe in the team.
Plus, with Giannis Antetokounmpo hurt, there's a chance the Knicks would avoid the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round, as they're tied 1-1 with the Indiana Pacers.
Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Championship Odds
Minnesota has the No. 1 defense in the NBA -- and fits the net rating history. The Wolves have shown that they can win in many ways, locking up the Suns' Big 3 through two games.
If the Wolves advance, it is likely they'll have a tough matchup with Denver in the second round. Still, at +1500 at FanDuel, they're tied for the fourth-best odds to win it all.
Dallas Mavericks NBA Championship Odds
Dallas stole Game 2 of the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers, even with Kawhi Leonard returning to the lineup.
Luka Doncic and company closed the season strong, winning 16 of their last 20 regular season games and posting the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 contests.
The Mavs have a nice path in the West, as they'd avoid any matchup with Denver until the Western Conference Finals.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.