NBA Finals Editors' Roundtable: Best Bets for Game 5
Can Game 5 of the NBA Finals just start already?
This year’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns has been fantastic, and the two teams are even at two games apiece heading into Game 5 in Phoenix.
While WynnBET has the Suns as four-point favorites, the Bucks have significantly improved their odds to win the series with their play in Game 3 and 4. Still, Vegas has the Suns as the -145 favorite to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy when it’s all said and done.
Phoenix has history on its side, as 35 of 39 teams that have led the NBA Finals 2-0 have gone on to win the title. That being said, the Suns have some serious issues to fix in the turnover department and on the boards if they want to hold off a surging Bucks team.
Giannis Antetkounmpo’s play has not only put the Bucks back in the series, but it has pushed him ahead of Chris Paul in the NBA Finals MVP standings as well. While Paul is still second at +175 odds, Devin Booker has put himself back in the conversation as well after scoring 42 points in the Game 4 loss.
This series really has been as closely contested as we expected, and it’s made for some interesting bets along the way.
Here are our editors’ best bets for Game 5 between the Bucks and Suns:
Bucks Moneyline (+155)
Call me #DeerDistrictDewey, because I’m all in on the Bucks to win Game 5.
All the numbers may be pointing to the Suns winning Game 5, but I’m not buying it. Milwaukee has been the far superior team over the last two games, and the Suns needed 20 3-pointers to stave off the Bucks in Game 2.
Phoenix has made just 16 of its 54 3-point attempts since then, and the Bucks have dominated in points in the paint, rebounding and now even free throw attempts in this series.
Giannis is by far the best player on the floor, and sometimes that’s all it takes to win. The Bucks lost Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix with both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday playing horribly, but they each had a game where they stepped up at home.
The numbers don’t support another big game from Middleton, but it could be Jrue’s turn to play second fiddle to Giannis in Game 5. Until the Suns stop beating themselves, I’m rolling with the Bucks. -- Peter Dewey
Jrue Holiday Goes Over 12.5 Combined Assists and Rebounds (-130)
Jrue Holiday was acquired this offseason by the Bucks to be a true difference maker in the postseason.
How one evaluates those contributions can be cause for debate, but what cannot be argued is his ability to stuff the stat sheet in the NBA postseason.
Holiday's "Assists + Rebounds" prop number for Game 5 at WynnBET is currently listed at 12.5, with the OVER juiced to -130.
Since the Finals began, Holiday has gone for 16, 12, 14 and 14 combined assists and rebounds. Over the last month, in 14 postseason games, Holiday has finished with 13-plus rebounds and assists in 10 of them.
He's averaging more than 40 minutes in the NBA Finals with his minutes trending upwards in each of the last three games. Look for Holiday to continue to contribute consistently in these two categories, since the scoring tends to be all over the place. I'll lay the juice and grab the over 12.5, before it likely gets bet up to 13.5. -- Ben Heisler
Suns -4.0 (-110)
The Phoenix Suns were in control for almost the entirety of Game 4 in Milwaukee, only losing their lead (and the cover) in the final minute of the game. After losing my Suns moneyline bet in heartbreaking fashion, I’m back on the Suns in Game 5.
The Suns shot better than the Bucks in Game 4, going 51.3% from the field compared to Milwaukee’s 40.2%. Phoenix shot themselves in the foot with turnovers in the game, committing an eye-popping 17 compared to the Bucks who only coughed up the ball five times.
Considering the Suns rank fourth in the NBA in turnovers per possession (12.3%), I expect them to fix their mistakes and put together a more complete performance in Game 5 on their home court. I’ll take the Suns to win and cover the four-point spread. -- Iain MacMillan
Chris Paul Goes Over 2.5 Turnovers (-120)
Although I think the Suns are going to win Game 5, I don’t see it happening without a few miscues from Chris Paul. WynnBET has set his turnover prop for 2.5, with the over (-120) slightly favoring the under (-110).
Paul has faced immense pressure from Jrue Holiday and has become even more turnover prone than ever. In the last three games, Paul has 15 turnovers -- which is two more than he had in the second and third round combined. After being flawless in Game 1, Paul has been careless with the ball.
Devin Booker can also handle the ball, but Paul is the best facilitator on the team which means the ball will be in his hands. I don’t think three turnovers, which would still be an improvement, is unreasonable to see. For that reason, I would put my money here. -- Donnavan Smoot
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