NBA Finals Game 3 Odds: Total Drops Lower in Warriors-Celtics
By Joe Summers
Game 3 of the NBA Finals gets going tonight at 9:00 PM EST, as the Boston Celtics host the Golden State Warriors with the series knotted at one win a piece.
WynnBET Sportsbook has the Celtics favored by 3.5 points (-108) and listed at -165 on the moneyline, but it's the total set at 212.5 (-108) that really has my attention.
After a furious Boston comeback in Game 1 pushed the game over the 214 total, Golden State's defense dominated from start-to-finish in Game 2, and the total went under by 18.5 points as a result.
It seems oddsmakers are expecting another low-scoring game, but why?
NBA Finals Game 3 Total Drops Lower
Boston and Golden State finished the regular season with the top-two defenses in net rating and have swarmed each other in the first two Finals games. But, it's the pace of play that really makes the under a potentially attractive option.
I’ll be on UNDER 212.5 for Game 3. The first two games of the NBA Finals have seen the teams play at a pace of 95.50. To put into perspective how slow that is, the Mavs played at the slowest pace during the regular season at 95.64.
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) June 8, 2022
Neither the Celtics nor Warriors played at a fast tempo in the regular season, with both teams ranking in the bottom-half in the NBA in pace. They've really slowed things down even more in the postseason. Boston, in particular, is playing as slow as possible to maximize open looks and mitigate potential injury.
During the playoffs, Boston's average pace (95.88) is nearly as low as the Mavericks' (95.64) during the regular season. Dallas had the slowest pace in the league, of course, but the Celtics' playoff tempo would have been the second-slowest during the year.
Thanks to each squads' elite defenses, both offenses are playing poorly too. In Game 2, the Celtics and Warriors combined to shoot 37% from the field with 30 total turnovers and in Game 1, they combined for 26 turnovers.
Game 1 went over as the Celtics' exploded from three-point range, but as the series goes on Game 2 seems to be a better predictor of future results. As each team gets more familiar with the other, I expect the defensive intensity to increase and the pace to slow.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the totals continue to drop ahead of Game 3 and beyond, but be sure to keep this trend in mind as you fill out your bet slip over at WynnBET throughout the NBA Finals.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.