NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings (Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards Lead the Way)

Breaking down the top candidates to win the NBA Finals MVP award this season ahead of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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The Conference Finals are upon us in the NBA playoffs and it's a perfect time to reset the NBA Finals MVP award market, as there are just four teams that could have this year's Finals MVP on their roster.

With the Boston Celtics heavily favored to win the title, Jayson Tatum is the favorite to win this award, although he is not yet an odds on favorite entering Bostn's series with the Indiana Pacers.

Out West, the Dallas Mavericks have both Luka Doncic (+600) and Kyrie Irving (+3500) in the mix for this honor, but it is Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards (+310) who is favored -- a sign that oddsmakers expect the Wolves to win that series.

Ultimately, betting on the NBA Finals MVP this early is a hedge on who you think will make and win the title. Taking Tatum at +115 gives bettors slightly better odds than taking Boston simply to win, but there could be some volatility in this market depending upon how the stars fare in the NBA Finals.

Let's break down the odds before diving into the latest edition of the NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings:

Latest Odds to Win NBA Finals MVP

  • Jayson Tatum (+115)
  • Anthony Edwards (+310)
  • Luka Doncic (+600)
  • Jaylen Brown (+800)
  • Derrick White (+2200)
  • Kristaps Porzingis (+3000)
  • Kyrie Irving (+3500)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (+3500)
  • Tyrese Haliburton (+4000)
  • Pascal Siakam (+6500)
  • Rudy Gobert (+9000)
  • Jrue Holiday (+15000)
  • Jaden McDaniels (+30000)
  • Myles Turner (+30000)
  • PJ Washington (+40000)
  • Derrick Jones Jr. (+50000)
  • Naz Reid (+60000)
  • Obi Toppin (+80000)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings Based on Odds

1. Luka Doncic (+600)

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates with teammates.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates with teammates. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

I have Doncic as the leader in the clubhouse to win Finals MVP for a few reasons.

Yes, it's risky to assume that Dallas will win the title, but the team has been clicking since the end of the regular season, posting an elite defensive rating (No. 1 in the NBA over the last 15 games of the regular season), and has a roster that fits well around Doncic.

With Kyrie Irving scoring just 15.7 points per game in the second round, Doncic picked up the slack, putting together three consecutive triple-doubles to close the series against OKC.

Luka is the best player left in the playoffs, and if he can shake off his ankle and knee injuries, we know that he'll put up the numbers necessary to win this award. The bigger question is whether or not Dallas can get to the title.

2. Jayson Tatum (+115)

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum.
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum. / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Why put such a heavy favorite like Tatum at No. 2?

Well, until Games 3, 4 and 5 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Tatum had played poorly in the postseason, averaging 21.7 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting from the field.

Over those last three games? Well, he scored 30.3 points per game and shot 47.0 percent from the field, adding 11.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists.

If that Tatum shows up, Boston should waltz to a title -- and Tatum to Finals MVP. The problem is, we've seen the ups and downs from him already this postseason.

Since Boston has so many other options that can beat a team (Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis), I don't think it's as cut and dry that Tatum will win Finals MVP if Boston takes the title.

3. Anthony Edwards (+310)

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards.
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Anthony Edwards has been terrific this postseason (although he did shoot 6-for-24 from the field in Game 7 on Sunday) and he's led the Wolves to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in 20 years.

Ant is the likely choice to win Finals MVP if the Wolves take it all, but they have less experience in these games than Dallas and Boston.

Also, there's a chance that Karl-Anthony Towns breaks out in the Finals -- he led the team in Game 7 against Denver -- that could hurt Ant's chances. I still think he's a great bet at +310, but Doncic -- to me -- is a more surefire wager if his team reaches the Finals.

4. Jaylen Brown (+800)

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) celebrates.
Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) celebrates. / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

I mentioned Brown earlier, and he's been solid on this playoff run for Boston, averaging 23.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

While his numbers now pale in comparison to Tatum after the star's last three games, it's not impossible for Brown to outplay Tatum in a seven-game series.

Since Boston is so heavily favored to win it all, it's worth taking a shot on the other All-Star in green to win this award.

5. Tyrese Haliburton (+4000)

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton.
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

If the Indiana Pacers somehow win the title this season as massive underdogs, Tyrese Haliburton is going to have to be at the center of it all.

The engine of the Indiana offense, Haliburton put together some masterful shooting games against the New York Knicks, and he'll need to do that again in the Eastern Conference Finals to beat Boston.

It's a long shot, but we've seen crazy things happen in the NBA playoffs before.

Honorable mentions: Karl-Anthony Towns (+3500), Kyrie Irving (+3500), Pascal Siakam (+6500)


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.