NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings (Market Adjusting for Likely Mavericks vs. Celtics Finals)
By Peter Dewey
The NBA Finals may not officially be set, but history tells us that they are.
No team has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA playoffs, and both the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks are up 3-0 in the Conference Finals.
Oddsmakers have adjusted the futures market for a Mavs-Celtics matchup, including the NBA Finals MVP, where Jayson Tatum remains the heavy favorite to win the award.
Even though Boston is heavily favored to win the title, is there value in taking a Mavs player to win Finals MVP in a potential upset?
Here's the latest edition of our NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings:
Latest Odds to Win NBA Finals MVP
- Jayson Tatum: -105
- Luka Doncic: +230
- Jaylen Brown: +500
- Kyrie Irving: +2000
- Kristaps Porzingis: +3500
- Anthony Edwards: +3500
- Derrick White: +3500
- Jrue Holiday: +5000
- Al Horford: +17000
- Karl-Anthony Towns: +20000
- PJ Washington: +20000
- Derrick Jones Jr.: +30000
It's surprising that Dereck Lively II, who has the best plus/minus of any Mavs player this postseason, isn't on this list. While Lively did injure his neck in Game 3 against Minnesota, he has until June 6 -- Game 1 of the NBA Finals -- to hopefully rest up and get healthy.
He'd still be a longshot, but he's an interesting pick to win this award given his on-court impact.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
NBA Finals MVP Power Rankings Based on Odds
1. Luka Doncic (+230)
Luka Doncic is on fire as of late, scoring 30 or more points in every game in the Western Conference Finals.
Doncic is the best player left in the playoffs, and I think there is a lot of value in taking him at +230 rather than laying the juice on Tatum to win Finals MVP. Dallas may not win the series, but Luka's numbers will be huge no matter the outcome.
2. Jayson Tatum (-105)
Jayson Tatum has played much better since about halfway through the second round, and he's the rightful favorite -- with Boston heavily favored -- to win NBA Finals MVP.
That being said, he's not even a lock to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP, which makes it a little hard to justify him at -105 when his teammate -- Jaylen Brown -- is going to be in the mix for this award.
3. Jaylen Brown (+500)
Speaking of Brown, he jumped to the favorite to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP ahead of Game 3, but he's now back behind Tatum in the market.
A bet on Brown at +500 is worth it, as he just needs to be hot for a few games and he could upstage Tatum in the Finals.
4. Kyrie Irving (+2000)
This is a huge revenge matchup for Kyrie Irving, who left the Boston Celtics a few seasons ago.
Irving is scoring the ball at a high rate this postseason, putting up multiple 30-point games in the Western Conference Finals. However, he's going to have a hard time upstaging Doncic, who is a -1200 favorite to win WCF MVP.
The star guard is worth a bet at +2000, but this is Doncic's award to lose if the Mavs take the series.
5. Jrue Holiday (+5000)
Jrue Holiday has been terrific since the Cavs series in the second round, and he's by far my favorite longshot bet in this market.
Holiday's path would be through the defensive end, as he could draw the matchup on Doncic. If he slows down the MVP finalist and keeps stuffing the stat sheet like he has over his last six to eight games, Holiday will have an argument for Finals MVP.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.