NBA Finals Odds: 3 Bucks Betting Stats to Know Before Game 4

Game 4 of the NBA Finals is tonight and it is a crucial swing game. If the Suns win, they take a commanding 3-1 lead. If the Bucks protect home court, the series becomes a best-of-three, tied at 2-2. 

After losing by double digits in Games 1 and 2, Milwaukee seemed to figure some things out in Game 3. The Bucks won handily and Game 4 will prove whether it was just home court advantage that kicked in, or if the Bucks are seriously in this series. 

The Bucks are -115 favorites on the moneyline going into tonight. If you are still bullish on the Bucks, here are a few stats to take into consideration. 

Bucks are dominating the offensive glass

Most of the normal stats for this series are fairly even. The overall points are three points apart, the difference in 3-point percentage is 0.2% and there is only a four turnover difference through three games. 

Where the Bucks do have a sizable advantage is in the offensive rebounding category. Milwaukee is up 40-23 on the offensive boards which make sense. The Bucks are a stronger and taller team than Phoenix and those extra opportunities are crucial to keeping the games as close as they’ve been. With Deandre Ayton as the Suns’ only big man, Milwaukee can really take advantage of Phoenix's lack of size in Game 4. 

Antetokounmpo’s bench minutes are the key

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been brilliant so far. Games 2 and 3 have been an absolute marvel to watch. When he is on and playing at his best, the Bucks are nearly unstoppable. In the minutes Antetokounmpo is on the court, the Bucks have a Net Rating of 8.73. When he’s off the court, the Bucks fall all the way down to -9.66. 

Net rating is the differential between offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions. The difference between the Bucks when Antetokounmpo sits is over an 18-point swing. If the Bucks want to win the series -- without needing Antetokounmpo to go for 40 points -- their supporting cast needs to learn how to maintain. 

Bucks are winning in the paint on offense

As discussed earlier, the Bucks are just a stronger and taller team than the Suns. The Bucks are expected to get buckets in the paint when Antetokounmpo is their best player, but they are dominating the Suns. Milwaukee is averaging 111 points per game in this series and 50 of those points are coming inside the paint. 

The Bucks are getting nearly half of their points inside and the Suns can’t do anything to stop it. With so many easy opportunities close to the basket, Phoenix is forced to shoot lights out. The Suns are only scoring 37.3 points in the paint per game and the easy looks against the length of the Bucks are just not there. 

Think the Bucks will even up the series?

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