Can the Phoenix Suns bounce back from their 20-point loss in Game 3 of the NBA Finals to take a 3-1 lead tonight?
The oddsmakers at WynnBET have the Suns as a four-point underdog in Game 4 against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum. While the line put Milwaukee in a good spot due to a playoff trend I’ve been following this postseason, there is still an argument that can be made for the Suns.
Phoenix had originally been favored to take at least one game in Milwaukee prior to Game 3, and that is still possible if the Suns can stay out of foul trouble in Game 4.
Here are three betting stats to know about Phoenix ahead of tonight’s matchup:
Suns Are Elite Following a Loss
One of the marks of a great team is how they respond to adversity. This season, nobody did that better than the Suns.
Phoenix is 18-7 against the spread following a loss this year, which is the best record in the NBA. That means the Suns cover 72 percent of the time following a loss. The next closest team this year? The Philadelphia 76ers at just 61.5 percent.
In addition, Milwaukee hasn’t been great after winning a game this season. The Bucks are 19th in the league at covering the spread following a win, as they’re just 27-31 (covering 46.6 percent of the time).
Phoenix may not win tonight, but they have -105 odds to cover the four-point spread, and based on this year’s numbers, there’s a great chance that happens.
Suns Don’t Mind Being the Underdog
Phoenix was one of the better teams in the NBA all season, so it wasn’t often that it found itself as an underdog this season.
However, in 14 games on the road where the Suns were the underdog, they went 10-4 against the spread which means they covered 71.4 percent of the time. That’s the best mark in the NBA, and the Suns have been the best team as a non-favorite all season, as they are 12-7 against the spread in those situations this season.
Deandre Ayton Is the X-Factor
It’s no secret that Deandre Ayton has been key to the Suns’ playoff run. Without another true big, and now with Dario Saric out for the season, the Suns have leaned heavily on Ayton to carry the load at center.
In Game 1 and 2, Ayton was plus-23 in his time on the floor, while the Suns were even when he was off the court.
That trend continued in Game 3 with Ayton in foul trouble. While the Suns big man was minus-6 in his 24:23 of playing time, Phoenix was even worse without him. The Suns were minus-14 without Ayton on the floor and got destroyed on the glass by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis.
If Ayton stays out of foul trouble, the Suns could deliver on their +160 odds on the moneyline and take Game 4.
Think the Suns are going to go up 3-1? Or are you riding with the Bucks to even the series? Make your pick now in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado.