NBA Finals Roundtable: Editors’ Best Bets for Game 3

Things are going to have to change and change quickly for the Milwaukee Bucks if they want to get back in the series against the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals. 

Khris Middleton (17-for-42) and Jrue Holiday (11-for-35) simply have to be better in this series for Milwaukee, but Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 42-point performance was a very welcome sign in Game 2. 

While the Bucks are 7-1 at Fiserv Forum this postseason, with their only loss coming in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Atlanta Hawks, they will have their hands full with the Suns tonight. 

Phoenix hit 20 3-pointers in Game 2, and has gotten solid production across the board through the first two games of the series. Devin Booker broke out of his shooting slump to score 31 points, and Mikal Bridges had one of the best games of his career with 27 points and seven boards. 

Phoenix now has -116 odds on WynnBET to take one of the two games in Milwaukee and lead the series 3-1. While oddsmakers may see the Suns stealing game, Milwaukee is still a four-point favorite in tonight’s game. 

Similar to Phoenix in Game 2, Milwaukee is in the range of a 3.5-to-6-point favorite, and those teams are now 24-8 against the spread this postseason. 

Just like Game 2, our editors have put together their most confident picks for tonight’s matchup. Two of those four picks hit in Game 2, so will you be fading or riding with today's picks in Game 3? 

Suns Win the Second Quarter (+130)

Ahead of Game 1, I wrote about the Suns' second quarter prowess over the course of the postseason. Entering the start of the NBA Finals, Phoenix had outscored its opponents by almost 14 points per 100 possessions in the second quarter, finishing 12-4 in their 16 playoff games.

In the Finals, not much has changed. The Suns have won the second quarter in the first two games, outscoring the Bucks by 18 points in Games 1 and 2. Phoenix has been incredibly efficient as well, shooting 50% from the field and it has yet to miss a free throw. Compare that to Milwaukee and you'll see a 33.3% field goal shooting team that is also 25% from 3-point range.

Finally, Phoenix is shooting 91.8% from free throw range in the second quarter, compared to a paltry 62.7% from Milwaukee. I'm skeptical that the oddsmakers at WynnBET have made Milwaukee a favorite here, but the numbers continue to back up Phoenix as the better second quarter team. Give me the Suns +130 to win the quarter and make it 3-0 in the Finals, and15-4 in the postseason. -- Ben Heisler

Giannis Antetokounmpo Records Over 0.5 Blocks (-240)

This is by far my most confident bet tonight. Antetokounmpo is a heavy favorite to block at least one shot in Game 3 and I am taking it. He had 3 blocks in Game 2 and had one in Game 1. WynnBET has Antetokounmpo as a -240 favorite to accomplish it. 

Throughout the playoffs, Antetokounmpo has recorded a block in 12 of the 17 games he’s played in. It’s an off night if he doesn’t block a shot. In the Bucks’ defensive scheme, it's his job to rotate over and protect the rim on drives, so he will have opportunities. 

If his block on Mikal Bridges was any indication on how healthy he is, he’s 100 percent.

I trust Antetokounmpo tonight and in the illustrious words of Charles Barkley, this is a “GUARANTEE.” -- Donnavan Smoot

Deandre Ayton Goes Over 12.5 rebounds (-104)

The story of the series, in my opinion at least, has been the dominance by Deandre Ayton against Brook Lopez. Giannis Antetokounmpo can only do so much by himself, but he’s received absolutely no help from his supporting cast, especially his starting center Lopez.

I expect Ayton to beat Lopez up down low once again, especially in the rebounding department. 

Ayton has recorded 17 or more rebounds in three of his last five starts, including 19 in Game 1 against the Bucks. I think you’d be hard pressed to find another player prop that presents as much value as the over on Ayton’s rebounding total at -104 odds. -- Iain MacMillan

Chris Paul Goes Over 34.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds (-120)

Chris Paul has been ready for the moment. 

In his first ever NBA Finals, Paul has been magnificent, as he’s averaging 27.5 points, 8.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game while shooting 56.4 percent from the field and 58.3 percent from 3. 

There’s a reason he’s a -140 favorite to win NBA Finals MVP, and I’m all in on Paul continuing his dominance in Game 3. WynnBET has Paul’s prop for points, assists and rebounds set at 34.5 with the over at -120 odds. 

Paul has easily gone over that number in his past three games, and after dealing with a shoulder injury and then COVID-19, this seems to be the healthiest we’ve seen Paul at all postseason. 

CP3 knows how big this series is for his career and legacy, and he’s left nothing to chance going back to Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers. I expect him to cement his status as the unquestioned NBA Finals MVP with another big game tonight. -- Peter Dewey

Interested in making these bets? Maybe even fading them?

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