It's a Trap: Which NBA First Round Playoff Series Odds is Most Deceiving?

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is the likely 2022 NBA MVP winner, but he'll have his hands full without much support vs. the Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is the likely 2022 NBA MVP winner, but he'll have his hands full without much support vs. the Golden State Warriors / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Get ready for basketball heaven all weekend long.

WynnBET Sportsbook posted odds for all eight Game 1's starting Saturday afternoon with the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks, as well as futures prices for each team to win the East, West and NBA Finals.

They've also posted odds for each series in Round 1, and the 3-6 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets strikes me as one where the oddsmakers may be throwing the betting public off the sharp scent.

Let's take a quick look at the latest series odds over at WynnBET.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds to Win the Series

  • Nuggets +190
  • Warriors -230
  • Warriors in 7 (+300)
  • Warriors in 5 (+325)
  • Warriors in 6 (+400)
  • Nuggets in 6 (+550)
  • Nuggets in 7 (+700)
  • Warriors in 4 (+800)
  • Nuggets in 5 (+1100)
  • Nuggets in 4 (+1750)

Find out who the BetSided team is betting and fading ahead of the NBA Playoffs this weekend!

Vegas is Tricking Bettors into Believing in the Nuggets

The Warriors have been a mess throughout the season and bettors think they may be vulnerable as they return to the playoffs Steph Curry has missed the last 12 games and remains questionable for Game 1, although the team is optimistic he'll play. Draymond Green played in just over half of the regular season fighting injuries, and the once-lethal Warriors offense finished middle of the pack in points per game this season.

Oh, and they now have to face the likely back-to-back NBA MVP in Nikola Jokic. Golden State should be a prime target for a first round upset, right?

If anything, I think the Nuggets are a prime target to be swept.

For a great as Jokic is, and he is superb, he is the end-all-be-all of this year's Nuggets team. As BetSided's Peter Dewey constantly reminds us, when Jokic is off the floor, the Nuggets are, and this isn't hyperbole, one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Those numbers were from mid-January. Jokic finished the season at +19.5.

Golden State enters the playoffs as the No. 2 team in the league in Defensive Rating, trailing only the Boston Celtics. With no Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. to counter any of the Warriors' firepower on both sides of the ball, it's Jokic or bust for Denver and it's almost a miracle he's taken them this far on his own.

One last note to consider? Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green played a combined 11 minutes together all season long. This isn't new teammates trying to get acclimated. These guys have won three championships together and were a part of the last great NBA dynasty.

The smart bet is Warriors in 5 at +325, assuming Jokic goes off like has has most nights and there's an off-shooting night from Golden State during the series. But I'll also consider a sprinkle on the Warriors to sweep, knowing what challenges lie ahead for Denver in this matchup.

This won't as close as the series odds may indicate.

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE