NBA Futures Market Post Trade Deadline: Where do the Nets and Sixers Stand after James Harden-Ben Simmons Trade

The NBA Trade Deadline has come and gone, and the big move of the day happened between two Eastern Conference contenders with the Brooklyn Nets trading disgruntled star James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers for fellow disgruntled star Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first round picks.

That is the deal that will shake up the top of The Association and changes the NBA Championship picture quite a bit. There were several other moves that helped bolster contenders, including the Milwaukee Bucks acquiring veteran big man Serge Ibaka and the Phoenix Suns bringing back wing Torrey Craig, but none were as splashy as the Harden blockbuster.

The Western Conference appears set from an odds perspective: the Phoenix Suns have the best record in the league and are now the title favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook at +400 while the Warriors are +450, the second choice.

The two leapfrogged the Nets, who share the shortest odds from the East with the defending champions Milwaukee Bucks at +600. The 76ers odds shifted to +700 after the Harden acquisition while the No. 1 seed at the moment Miami Heat sit at +1200. There's a drop off after that, so let's assess how the big move shakes up the title picture.

Nets No Longer Title Favorites

Let's start with this: I'm a diehard Nets fan. So, if you think this comes off as biased, it very well could be, but the Nets made a decision that Harden's time had come to a close in Brooklyn and got off the ship before it sank to the bottom of the ocean.

The trio of Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is a failure considering the team played 16 games together dating back to last January due mainly to injury. The limited sample of those three on the floor and idea of them on the floor for a postseason made them worthy of being favorites, but Harden had seen enough and didn't want to wait, opting to get sent down I-95 to join Joel Embiid and the Sixers.

In return for Harden, who is having his worst season from an efficiency stand point, the Nets got Simmons, who unlocks a lot of versatility that Brooklyn didn't have on hand. Simmons of course has not played this season with the Sixers, but joins a Brooklyn team that can surround him with the best shooting he has ever had.

The guard that joined him, Curry, has been fantastic this season in a bigger role as Simmons sat on the sidelines by choice, and has become not only a devastating catch-and-shoot threat, but also a capable ball handler that can play as a secondary shot creator off of Irving (more on him in a bit) and Durant.

Not to mention, the Nets have Patty Mills, who is shooting 42% from three this season, but more importantly 44% on nearly six catch and shoot shots per game. If the Nets are able to get Joe Harris back, the Nets have arguably the best three-point attack in the league around two all time shot creators in Irving and Durant.

Simmons fit in the Nets rotation is quite simple, and better than it was next to Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. He can push the pace for the Nets, who were around league average with Harden on the floor and can switch 1-to-5 on defense around another All-Defensive player in Durant. The Nets may have some issues defending the rim against bigger teams and are lacking some dynamic defenders in the backcourt, but Simmons unlocks a lot of lineups for Steve Nash to deploy.

There are questions about Simmons mental state and how he will return to the floor but if he is anything like the All-NBA caliber player, the burden won't be on him to generate his own shot very much while he can improve the Nets defense that has slipped to 21st in the league instantly. Simmons can also work as a roll man for Durant and Irving, showcasing his finishing and elite passing as well.

Lastly, the addition of Drummond is actually a nice get for Brooklyn. While on a veteran minimum contract, the Nets desperately need size and rebounding on the block. He played just 18 minutes per game in Philly, but his per 36 minutes numbers show his potential with the Nets, hauling in more than 17 rebounds per 36. At the very least in the postseason, he can bide time on the likes of Embiid over the course of the game (maybe just to eat fouls).

The Nets are in the midst of a 10 game slide as the Harden situation reached a breaking point and the team eagerly awaits Durant's return to the floor from a sprained MCL.

It's expected that he will be perfectly fine by the time March rolls around, but it's the third star that we have glossed over a bit that presents the most pressing question: Kyrie Irving. Harden grew frustration in Brooklyn, likely due to the situation he was forced into with Irving's part time status due to the New York City mandate on vaccinated players. We know the gist of that by now.

If Irving is unable to play in home games this postseason, the Nets tall order of whipping a new team together in about 20 games becomes harder, but if that mandate is lifted (there is growing sentiment in surrounding states towards easing vaccine requirements) the Nets can transform themselves mid season into an up-tempo team with heightened defensive prowess.

We'll see what happens on that front, and how Simmons looks in the coming weeks after not playing since this past summer, but the Nets did do some good in this trade despite losing the biggest star in the deal. For one, the team started putting out some fires in the locker room. Who knows what else is going on, but it became apparent that Harden no longer wanted to be there, and the Nets moved on.

The team may have sold short in the aggregate of the Harden deal after sacraficing a ton of Draft capital and young talent (Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert mainly) to get The Beard, but the team still brought in an All-NBA level unique talent in Simmons, one of the best complimentary players in the league in Curry and a stopgap big man that can surely help in the regular season as well as two picks that can be used in the long term.

Sixers are Legitimate Contenders in the Eastern Conference

In the short term, the Nets improved a contender in their very conference. The Sixers are firmly in the Championship mix now after ridding themselves of a star who wouldn't play and acquiring one of the best players of this generation.

We will see what a new environment means for Harden's defense and lack of burst (he is shooting below 60% on shots at the rim this season for the first time since his rookie year), but there is no denying that he is joining the most skilled big man of his career in Embiid, who is the league MVP for my money right now. Philly didn't become the favorites to win it all with this move, but the team has the potential to form the best duo in the league with several ways to beat you on both offense and defense.

Philadelphia was able to keep budding star Tyrese Maxey and elite defender Matisse Thybulle as well, so this roster has the necessary depth to ease the load of Harden. In turn, the acquisition of Harden can make life easier for Embiid, who can save some gas in the tank for a postseason run.

The State of the NBA Championship Picture

Brooklyn went from the prohibitive favorite on paper into a group with the following, in my opinion: Phoenix, Golden State, Milwaukee, Miami and Philadelphia (in no order). The Nets drop down a tier from favorites to contenders while rising the Sixers up a tier.

It will be interesting to see how both teams in the trade juggle their new rosters on such a short timeline, but I do believe that seeding in this postseason is going to mean very little -- sidebar: remember when the joke before the season was the Nets tanking games to get a worse seed to make sure Irving could play on the road in a Game 7, wouldn't that be something.

Both teams have enough talent to win it all, but the two favorites are likely the two teams that were in the Finals last season in Milwaukee and Phoenix. Both teams made quiet, but relevant adds to their roster and their continuity can be the key to push them over the top in a seven game series.

In the long term, the Nets extended their window around Durant and Irving while also gaining either a formidable third star, or more trade assets to make the next big move. The Sixers made a move for this season and maybe next, not much further. The Nets tried to clean up a mess while Daryl Morey pounced at getting his MVP center a chance to win a ring this season. We'll see how Harden transitions into his new role and ages alongside Embiid, but they are no doubt a threat to win it all this season. Remember, just last season Harden was in the mix for a second MVP before a hamstring injury derailed his season.

Bets to Make in the NBA Futures Market

When it comes to betting the NBA Futures market right now, Phoenix is likely the best bet right now. The Suns have the best record in the league by 5 games and matchup with any Western Conference foe just fine and their price is likely going nowhere but down given they are well on their way to locking up the No. 1 seed in the West.

As for the East: Milwaukee feels like the bet given their continuity and the fact that they are the defending champs, while Miami has the best record and the defensive matchups to check Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks offense. However, the Sixers have the MVP and now a motivated Harden who got his wish to go to Philadelphia. If the two reach their ceiling, they are of course a tough out.

Now, the Nets. The team is likely going to be coming from the bottom part of the conference and they provide the largest range of outcomes due to the variables up in the air. How will Simmons return? what will Irving's availability be,?what is the state of the locker room? These are three of the many questions surrounding the organization.

All in all, I will be betting more Nets futures because I do believe this team will be in the mix to beat any team in the league with a healthy Kevin Durant. He's that good. Durant was averaging 29/7/5 on 52/37/89 splits this season before the knee injury. He nearly took down the Bucks last season if not for a size too big shoe playing essentially 4-on-5 given Harden's hamstring injury. However, wait to bet it.

Again, I'm a Nets fan, and the team's slide (currently in the midst of a 10 game losing streak) is likely going to continue into the All Star break when I expect Durant and Simmons to hit the floor soon after. If there is any change in vaccine mandates in NYC during the All Star break, I'll likely be buying Nets futures then, but I'm sure I'll have updates during that time period. This is a wait and see approach, but that's what I'm looking to do based on what happens over the next month. The price is likely going to continue dropping.

For now, the NBA Championship picture became much more crowded and Futures bettors should be in wait and see mode.

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!