NBA MVP Odds for 2023-24 Season (Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo Lead Way)
By Peter Dewey
The voting for the 2023-24 NBA MVP could look a little different this season, as the new collective bargaining agreement has led to a games threshold being placed on players receiving certain awards – including MVP.
You’ll need to play at least 65 games to qualify for the award, but the odds for this season’s MVP are relatively straightforward with Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic headlining the top three spots.
Odds to Win NBA MVP This Season
If you’re looking for more NBA futures, I shared 15 (!!) futures that I’m betting on in the 2023-24 season in the first edition of “Peter’s Points.”
Key Trends to Know Before Betting on NBA MVP Award
Trend 1: Since the 1977-78 season, only four league MVPs have played less than 70 games. Three of those instances came in shortened seasons by COVID or an NBA lockout, until Joel Embiid accomplished the feat last season.
With the NBA instituting a 65-game threshold to win MVP, it’s likely the 70–game threshold comes into play against this season.
Trend 2: Since the 2000 season, there have been seven different instances where a player has won the MVP in back-to-back seasons.
So, don’t sleep on Embiid to repeat this season. Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic have all won back-to-back MVP awards since 2000.
Trend 3: Since 1983, only two players have won the league’s MVP award without being a top-three seed in their respective conference.
Those instances were Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Nikola Jokic (2021-22). We’re looking for a player who has a path to a top seed, as it’s extremely hard to win the MVP without that.
Best Bets to Win NBA MVP in 2023-24 Season
There are plenty of players to consider for the MVP award, but I have three players that I’ve already bet on (shared in my season preview column) because I think they not only have paths to the MVP – but also have somewhat favorable odds to those around them.
I am trying to avoid players with multiple MVP candidates high in the odds on the same team (Kevin Durant and Devin Booker – Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo) since they may cannibalize each other’s case for the MVP.
Nikola Jokic (+450)
I love Jokic for multiple reasons to win the MVP award.
He’s been insanely durable, playing in at least 69 games in every season in his NBA career, and in the last two seasons, he’s posted net rating numbers of +12.0 and +8.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.
Denver is expected to be one of the best teams in the NBA this season, so it should have a path to a top seed. After voter fatigue hurt Jokic last season, he should be right back in the conversation for MVP this season.
Jayson Tatum (+900)
The Boston Celtics have the highest projected win total in the NBA, which should set up well for an MVP campaign for Jayson Tatum.
Last season, Tatum put up MVP-caliber numbers, averaging 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game last season. He’s played in at least 64 games in every season in his career, so the durability is there.
I also think the narrative may be in Tatum’s favor with Lillard now in Milwaukee. If the Celtics beat out the Bucks for the top seed in the East, it’s going to be hard to give the MVP to anyone else in the East, unless they have a crazy statistical season.
Tatum has been hovering around in the MVP conversation the past two seasons, this could be the year he breaks through.
Stephen Curry (+1400)
There is concern with Curry’s durability, especially since he’s sat out second nights of back-to-backs over the past few seasons.
However, he’s coming off his best season efficiency-wise since the 2018-19 campaign and now has Chris Paul in the rotation to help set him up on offense. Golden State’s path to a top-three seed is actually pretty easy, the team just can’t go 11-30 on the road again.
Golden State was +5.8 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor last season and -2.2 points per 100 possessions with him off. That’s a pretty huge impact.
If you're considering betting on the futures market in the NBA, check out DraftKings Sportsbook and its new welcome offer.
New users who sign up with the link below and deposit $5 will instantly receive $200 in bonus bets!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.