NBA Overs are Hot Right Now, But How Long Will it Last?
By Ben Heisler
Living by the expression, "Life's too short to bet the under" tends to get casual bettors in trouble most nights. In the month of December, however, 'over' bets have been the way to go when wagering on the NBA.
Heading into an 11-game slate in the Association this Wednesday evening, overs have hit this month at just under 54%.
Via VSiN's Dave Tuley, overs are 51-44-2 through the first two weeks of December, but that's likely to regress over the next few weeks. Unders are 222-188-6 overall since the NBA season first tipped off, and were 178-137-4 heading into December.
More VFV of #NBA: dogs still lead 52-43-1 ATS (54.7 percent) in December w/ 1 game closing pick-'em; Overs went 2-1 Tuesday night and still lead 51-44-2 (53.7 percent) in December, but Unders still lead 222-188-6 (54.1 percent) on the season @VSiNLive
— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) December 15, 2021
Who are the Best NBA Teams to Bet the Over On?
Our Donnavan Smoot covered the teams to fade in the NBA when betting on overs this year, but there are several teams who are worth backing as long as the oddsmakers don't adjust.
Last season, only one team in the Indiana Pacers hit overs consistently above 60%; finishing right at 63% at 46-27-1.
This year, that team has been the Charlotte Hornets who are 17-11-1 in their over record; covering 60.7% of the time via TeamRankings. Charlotte ranks third in the league in pace, offensive rating, and first in offensive possessions.
What about for more specific trends, like playing at home or on the road?
The Hornets have also hit overs 72.7% of the time in Charlotte this season, going 8-3-1 against the number, but the San Antonio Spurs have been on fire in their over record in their home arena. The Spurs through 14 games are 11-2-1 in overs this season, winning at a staggering 84.6% clip.
Two teams are tied at the top for the best road teams covering the total. The Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings have gone 10-5 in overs away from home this season, covering 66.7% of the time. Sacramento, via TeamRankings, has the highest Total +/- number at +7.3, leading the Hornets (+7.1), the Magic (+4.5) from a reliability standpoint.
Remember, while the NBA sample size continues to grow this season, NBA oddsmakers consistently are adjusting their lines with more information and more games. Following trends blindly without other key factors can get bettors into a slump fairly quickly.
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