NBA Playoff Seeding Trends (When was the Last Time a No. 1 Seed Lost?)

The NBA regular season concluded on Sunday night and we are halfway through the play-in tournament. While we won't know the No. 8 seeds until after the tourney is over, we do know who their opponents will be. We also know a lot about how No. 8 seeds fare in their opening-round games against top-seeded teams. 

The Phoenix Suns and the Miami Heat had the best record in each conference and entered the 2022 NBA Playoffs as the No. 1 seeds. The Suns will play either the LA Clippers or the winner of tonight’s Pelicans vs. Spurs game. Miami, meanwhile, will be playing the Cavs or the winner of tonight’s Hawks vs. Hornets play-in game. So, how have these opening round matchups traditionally gone? As one would expect, not well for the No. 8 seeded teams. 

Since the NBA expanded the playoffs to 16 teams in 1983-84, there have been just five instances of the underdogs taking the series. That works out to be around seven percent of the time.

The first team to get upset in this manner was the 1994 Seattle Supersonics. They led their opening-round series against the No. 8 seeded Denver Nuggets but couldn't finish. Dikembe Mutombo led Denver in an epic game five. The Heat was the next top-seeded team to get upset in the opening round when they lost in five games to the Knicks. 

The first round of the playoffs was eventually expanded to seven games. The first No. 8 to defeat a No. 1 after that change was the Golden State Warriors. They were able to upset the Dallas Mavericks, who were the favorites to win the NBA Finals. The Grizzlies then went on to beat the Spurs in 2011, then the 76ers beat the Bulls in 2012. 

And that's it. The history of No. 8 seeds beating No. 1 seeds. There have been several instances of these games going five, or now seven games. But it’s not often that the underdogs manage to capitalize on those situations. With the Suns and Heat cruising right now, I doubt any of the play-in teams can beat them in a seven-game series.