Game 7, for all the marble, but can history give us some insight into who will win?
The Boston Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks in their Game 7 on Sunday while the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks meet in the desert in their decisive game. Two epic series will come to an end on Sunday with the margin between the teams tight.
Based on history, the home teams tend to take care of business on their home floor, but that number has been trending downward over the past several years as the 3-point shot becomes more common and there's more variance in each game.
Here are some trends around recent Game 7's ahead of the pair on Sunday.
Home Teams Dominant in Game 7
Based on history, the Bucks and Mavericks will be going home on Sunday. Since the 2011 postseason (not including the bubble) home teams are 22-10 straight up in Game 7's, a staggering 68% hit rate. With that in mind, home teams are just 16-16 against the spread, as the series goes longer and the number becomes more defined, there's no edge betting the spread.
However, favorites of 5 or more (which the Celtics and Suns both are at WynnBET Sportsbook) are 14-10 against the spread, slightly above average and are 19-5 straight up.
There is definitely some evidence that the home teams benefit from their home court in a Game 7, but that number has been trending down lately, as Matt Moore from The Action Network notes:
With more 3-point shooting teams get hot or cold in a one game sample size, sometimes tipping the scales and giving the road team some more life. It's something to keep an eye on for on Game 7 Sunday.
Game 7 Unders
Game 7 unders have hit at a 61% clip dating back to 2003, and these numbers are already on the move. After opening at 210 briefly, the Bucks-Celtics total is down to 207.5 at WynnBET while the Suns-Mavericks total is sitting at 205.5, down 4.5 points from the opener of 210.
Of course this is the deciding game and the pace is played at an incredibly slow tempo, with each possession maximized. Officials typically swallow their whistles in these type of matchups, allowing the teams to play physical and nervous shooting creeps in as more shots go awry.
The movement shows that there is weight to this trend as each total has dropped considerably from open. Most Game 7's are tight and physical. Teams are out of adjustments it comes down to who will make more shots and the pace is slow. Bet on the unders in Game 7.
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!