NBA Playoffs Odds: If You Are Down 2-0 It's Over, History Says

The old saying goes, “A series doesn’t start until a team wins on the road.” 

Well, in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, if the road team doesn’t at least split the first two games in the series, the series is typically over. 

According to Matt Moore of The Action Network, teams with home court are 89-5 in the series when they win the first two games of the series. 

Following three Game 2’s on Monday that saw the home team win, are those teams near locks to advance? Let’s see what the betting market has to say: 

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NBA Playoffs Home Teams Dominant Record When Going Up 2-0 in First Round

As shown above, nearly 95% of first-round series that see the home team go up 2-0 are won by that same team. 

That’s a staggering number, and we now have three cases (and maybe more starting on Tuesday) in front of us with the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Nuggets all going up 2-0 on respective opponents on Monday. 

The Cavs are now -800 to advance to the second round after holding the Magic to below 90 points in two straight games while the Nuggets are -2000 after coming back from down 20 in the second half to beat the Lakers in Game 2 at home. 

The closest-lined series is the Knicks-Sixers one, which provided another wild outcome on Monday night with the Knicks erasing a five-point deficit in the last 30 seconds to hold serve at Madison Square Garden. This series was lined as a coin flip, but the Knicks are now -520 to advance to the second round.

The gap between most teams in Round 1 is at its greatest, so it does make sense that typically the teams that can maintain their home court can make good on winning the series, and history backs up that hypothesis.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.