NBA Rookie Ladder: Ranking Top Rookies Based on NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
By Peter Dewey
The NBA Rookie of the Year award has essentially become a three-man race as we get ready for the final stretch of the season after the All-Star break, but who has the edge in the odds?
WynnBET Sportsbook still has Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley as the overwhelming favorite to win this year’s award at -350 odds, but Cade Cunningham (+550) and Scottie Barnes (+600) still appear to have a fighting chance.
Let’s break down each player’s candidacy through the All-Star break:
Evan Mobley, Forward, Cleveland Cavaliers (-350)
Mobley’s biggest case may be the fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers have made the leap from the lottery to the playoffs in the 2021-22 season with him on the roster.
The rookie big man has been great on both ends of the floor, posting a 1.7 defensive box plus/minus and 1.2 value over replacement player this season.
Mobley may not be the best player on the Cavs (that honor goes to Darius Garland), but he has been extremely impactful, averaging 14.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, while shooting 50.3 percent from the field.
Usually, the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award doesn’t necessarily hinge on team success, but Mobley has the individual numbers and the team success that makes him the rightful favorite at this point in the season.
There’s no value in betting on him at -350, but if his odds do slip and his production stays the same, there is a chance you can hop back in on the Mobley bandwagon at a better price.
Cade Cunningham, Guard, Detroit Pistons (+550)
As many expected entering this season, Cunningham has the counting numbers to be named the league’s rookie of the year.
However, the Pistons are once again one of the worst teams in the league, and injuries have kept Cunningham out of the lineup quite a bit so far this season. He’s still played in 44 games, but he got off to a slow start because of injuries and hasn’t been able to make up ground on Mobley since.
The biggest issue for Cunningham has been his efficiency, as the rookie guard is shooting just 39.4 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from 3-point range this season. He doesn’t have much help, but he’s also not putting up insane scoring numbers, averaging 15.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game.
Cunningham’s only real path to this award would be having a huge final two months of the season and pushing his points per game total closer to 18 a game.
That’s a huge ask, and with his team being so bad, I can’t see the voters giving Cunningham the nod over Mobley with most of their numbers in the same ballpark.
Scottie Barnes, Forward, Toronto Raptors (+600)
Barnes had a serious case to win this award earlier in the season, but his production and usage has dipped with OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent Jr. all healthy.
Still, Barnes is averaging 14.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 47.0 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from deep.
The Raptors are looking like a playoff-caliber team, which certainly helps Barnes’ case, but I’m not sure if it's enough to propel him over Mobley. The narrative and the subsequent odds have really leaned towards Mobley for some time, so it’s going to be hard to craft a path for Barnes to overtake him.
Barnes’ role in the Toronto offense is a lot smaller than it was entering the season with Siakam out, but he’s still been an absolute gem for Toronto since it passed on Jalen Suggs for him in the 2021 draft.