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NBA Underdog Pick of the Day (Don’t Sleep on Phoenix to Stay Hot)

By Peter Dewey

Phoenix Suns big man Deandre Ayton.
Phoenix Suns big man Deandre Ayton. / Chris Coduto/GettyImages
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The Phoenix Suns just keep winning. They erased a double-digit deficit on Wednesday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves to pick up their sixth straight win and their 59th win on the season. 

Now, the Suns are underdogs on the road in the second night of a back-to-back against the Denver Nuggets. 

Phoenix is just 6-6 against the spread on back-to-backs this season, but it is also one of the best teams in the NBA as an away underdog, going 6-3 ATS. 

Let’s take a look at the odds for this game via WynnBET and explain why the Suns are live to pull off an upset.  

Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Suns +3 (-110)
  • Nuggets -3 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Suns: +130
  • Nuggets: -160

Total:

  • 232 (Over -110/Under -110)

Why Suns Can Upset Nuggets in Denver

Phoenix’s win on Wednesday actually helped Denver, as it gave Nikola Jokic and company a 1.5-game cushion on the Timberwolves for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference. 

That being said, I’m not a huge fan of Denver’s current form coming into this game, as the Nuggets have lost two of their last three games and have really slipped defensively after a strong start post-All-Star break. 

The Nuggets are No. 16 in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and they are ninth in offensive rating, which are usually solid numbers. That is, unless you are playing a top-10 team in both categories like they are on Thursday. 

Phoenix is sixth in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and third in net rating (plus-10.2) over their last 10 matchups. 

Denver is also just 12-16 against the spread as a home favorite this season, so it’s not like Phoenix is going up against a team that is a juggernaut at home. The Suns have made due without Chris Paul, and Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are playing some of their best basketball of the season. 

As long as those two suit up for Phoenix, I think we are getting some value on the Suns to win outright. 

Lean: Suns Moneyline (+130)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

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