NBA Underdog Pick of the Day (Hornets Primed for Upset Over Raptors at Home)
By Peter Dewey
Looking for a moneyline upset to take in the NBA on Monday?
I’ve got one game that I’m eyeing tonight, as the Charlotte Hornets host the Toronto Raptors and are now 1.5-point underdogs (opened at +2.5 at WynnBET) and +110 on the moneyline in this game.
The Raptors have won five straight games heading into this matchup, while the Hornets have lost four straight, which could make this game a sell-high, buy-low type of matchup.
Charlotte’s biggest struggles come on the defensive end of the floor (24th in defensive rating), but the Hornets have been money at home this season.
NBA Betting Trends: Charlotte Hornets Against the Spread Record at Home
The Hornets are 31-23 against the spread this season overall, but they’ve been far better at home, which is par for the course for a young team.
- At Home: 15-9
- Home Underdog: 9-3
- Home Favorite: 6-6
As a home underdog this season, Charlotte has gone 7-5 straight up in those games, which gives me confidence that it can pull off the upset as a small underdog in this game.
The Raptors have been dominating at home this season, especially as of late, winning their last three games at home. However, Toronto has a negative net rating (minus-1.2) on the road this season.
As for Charlotte, it has a minus-1.7 net rating on the road but that changes drastically at home, going to plus-1.0. Similarly, the Raptors are plus-3.4 in terms of net rating at home.
Why Hornets Are Primed for the Upset vs. Raptors
So what does this all mean?
Basically, the Hornets are a much better team at home than on the road, and the same can be said for Toronto.
This certainly could play a big role in this game, as Charlotte loves to push the pace (second in the NBA) while the Raptors come in at 26th in pace. If Charlotte can play its style on its home floor, it may take the Raptors out of their game on Monday night.
I also really think the Hornets are due for a win as they’ve played some close games with the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers recently who are two of the best defenses in the NBA. In fact, Charlotte has faced four defenses in the top-10 in defensive rating over this four-game skid, while the Raptors rank 16th in defensive rating this season.
I’ll back the Hornets as slight dogs over any of the other underdogs in the five games in the NBA on Monday.
Pick: Hornets Moneyline (+110)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.