NC State vs. Clemson Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 5

Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) passes near Wake Forest defensive lineman Dion Bergan, Jr.
Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) passes near Wake Forest defensive lineman Dion Bergan, Jr. / Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY NETWORK

The two best teams in the ACC meet on Saturday night in a battle of top 10 foes.

Clemson escape Wake Forest with an overtime victory last week and now look for revenge against North Carolina State after losing in overtime last season. The Wolfpack haven't faced an elite team yet and Clemson brings a team with the highest expectations in recent memory their toughest test. How will Devin Leary and the NC State offense react?

Let's check out the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and find the best bet for this Saturday night showdown:

North Carolina State vs. Clemson Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina State vs. Clemson Betting Trends

  • North Carolina State is 33-37-2 against the spread (ATS) under Dave Doeren, but 10-6 since 2020
  • Clemson is 10-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons
  • Clemson is 49-36-3 ATS in ACC play over the last 10 seasons
  • Clemson is 1-3 ATS this season

North Carolina State vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

We'll start with the weather. Hurricane Ian was projected to alter this game quite a bit, and the betting market reacted swiftly. Weather forecasts projected rain throughout the game and wind gusts north of 40 miles per hour, sending this total down from the opener of 45.5 to 40.

Now, it looks like the wind should subside and it will be more about the rain on the field. The total climbed back to 43.5 as of this writing. I mentioned on The Early Reed that I was buying the under below 41 and now that the weather forecast is showing that there will be limited alterations to the game, I think we see the projected game I envisioned.

So, what is that?

I'm not crazy about this North Carolina State team as they go to face a Clemson offense that is starting to find their footing with Uiagalelei under center. The team hung 50+ on Wake Forest, who is significantly worse on that side of the ball against NC State, but are the Wolfpack as elite as predicted?

The team has been outgained by their two legitimate foes this season in East Carolina and Texas Tech, needing timely turnovers to flip the game script and win those games outright. However, the team is bottom half of the country in both explosive pass and rush defense.

The Clemson offensive line has been strong protecting DJU and opening rushing lanes, posting the 34th best line yard metric. They are running to open up the passing game, which is 30th in explosive pass rate and 37th in EPA/Play on passing plays.

I think the Tigers can find success against this NC State defense that has struggled in their slight challenges, but don't sleep on Leary and this Wolfpack offense. Clemson's secondary was exposed against Wake Forest, allowing six passing touchdowns in the win.

No, NC State doesn't have the weapons that Wake does, but Leary is fantastic and I think this Wolfpack offensive line can hold up against Clemson's defense for their quarterback to make plays.

I projected this total at 48.5 (without projecting weather), at below 45 this was a play for me and I'm willing to stand by that.