NC State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Final Four (Boilermakers Set for Blowout)
By Reed Wallach
Purdue made good on its top seed in the Midwest Region, blitzing that side of the bracket en route to the Final Four behind the play of big man Zach Edey.
Edey will match up with the surging NC State Wolfpack, who have won nine straight elimination games to make the Final Four in improbable fashion. Behind the play of big man DJ Burns, the Wolfpack’s dream season will look to continue on Saturday night in the Final Four as massive underdogs, again.
Who has the edge in this first of two National semifinals? We got you covered with our full betting preview.
New DraftKings Sportsbook users, sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets when you make a first bet of just $5! Sign up NOW to get started.
Purdue vs. NC State Odds, Spread and Total
Purdue vs. NC State Betting Trends
- NC State is 12-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
- Purdue has covered in each game this NCAA Tournament
- Purdue has gone OVER in 23 of 37 games this season
NC State vs. Purdue How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, April 6
- Game Time: 6:09 PM EST
- Venue: State Farm Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): TBS
- NC State Record: 26-14
- Purdue Record: 33-4
NC State vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch
NC State
DJ Burns: The Wolfpack big man carved up Duke in the Elite Eight, dropping 29 points on 13-of-19 shooting while the team pulled away from the Blue Devils in a second half surge. Burns is comfortable posting up but also passing out of the post and generating sound ball movement. Drawing the Edey assignment on both sides won’t be easy, so Burns’ trait as a passer may be the focus in this one.
Purdue
Zach Edey: The very likely back-to-back Wooden Award winner out-dueled Dalton Knecht in the Elite Eight, scoring 40 of the Boilermakers 72 points while grabbing 16 rebounds. It was a heroic effort from the 7’4” big man who is one win away from playing in the National Championship game.
NC State vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick
It’s tough to see NC State keeping up – even though the team continues to smash expectations.
However, the team hasn’t faced a post reliant offense en route to the Final Four, which of course Purdue is with Edey on the block.
The Wolfpack are an average post defense, ranking in the 44th percentile in points per possession allowed, per Synergy Sports, and the team sends teams to the free throw rate at a nationally average rate, according to KenPom. That will be a point of emphasis in this game with Edey leading the nation in free throw attempts and the Wolfpack essentially running a seven man rotation at this point in the season.
Edey has shown he is capable of passing out of double teams, the strength to fight through post defense and draw fouls, or turn around and finish over big men. Given the way he is able to use his body to get to his spot, or get fouled in the process, I don’t envision NC State will have an answer for him.
On the other side, Burns will have his hands full on the block against Edey, giving up about seven inches of height to the soon to be back-to-back Wooden Award winner. The Wolfpack will need to have a strong shooting performance, which hasn’t been the catalyst for its run, it has done it with its defensive ability.
NC State’s opponents are shooting about 24% from beyond the arc in the four tournament games. While a testament to the team’s defense, I do believe there is some looming regression for the Wolfpack as the team needs to give Edey attention, which can open up perimeter shots for the Boilermakers’ stable of shooters that are shooting over 40% from beyond the arc as a team this season.
The end of the road is here for NC State, and I think it comes in blowout fashion.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!