NCAA Tournament First Round Bets to Make Right Now
By Reed Wallach
We are here. March Madness is on the calendar for the next few weekends. Tell your loved ones you'll see them after the first weekend of April when we know the National Champion, we have some college basketball to watch.
Selection Sunday has come and gone and the brackets have been revealed. NCAA Tournament first round lines are available at WynnBET Sportsbook and I've gotten down on a handful that you can check out here. For now, here's four plays I made on first round matchups, this will operate as part of my best bets segment ahead of Thursday's tip.
Let's cash some tickets and have a fruitful March.
Column Record: 98-97-4 (-4.6 Units)
Colorado State (+2.5) vs. Michigan
I have been trying to stay on the Michigan bandwagon all season. They have an elite big man in Hunter Dickinson, who can take over games both inside and now out, but this team is too up and down for my liking. If you have followed the team, they seem ripe for a first round exit.
The Big Ten at large bid Wolverines are the No. 11 seed, but are favored by over a bucket against Mountain West stalwarts Colorado State. I have this game as a pick but believe the Rams as the right side.
The team may have issues against Dickinson down low, but the Rams have a compact defense that is 19th in near-proximity percentage, meaning that only 18 teams force teams to take their shots further from the hoop, per Halsemetrics.
On the other side of the floor, Michigan's defense has been vulnerable all season and 6'6" David Roddy and co. can bust them up, especially in the pick-and-roll. Overall, the Rams post a top 20 effective field goal percentage and are an elite free throw shooting team and also have the superior outside shot making.
I don't want to overreact to one game, but it was very concerning to see Michigan, who got head coach Juwan Howard back from a suspension, blow a 17-point lead in the second half to Indiana in his first game back on the sidelines after an incident at Wisconsin where he punched an assistant.
I'm going to trust the potent offense and the better coach, CSU's Niko Medved, to stay close and likely win.
PICK: Colorado State +2.5
North Carolina (-3) vs. Marquette
I bet this at -2.5 and the market moved with me to -3, but there's still room to go on the Tar Heels, who I make 4.5 point favorites against a struggling Marquette team.
This matchup sets up nicely for the Tar Heels, who are starting to reach their potential down the stretch. Hubert Davis' club is 23rd in barttorvik.com's adjusted efficiency metric since Feb. 12, while Marquette ranks 105th in the country.
The Heels can expose the Golden Eagles deficient defensive rebounding with big man Armando Bacot as long as the team can protect the ball against Marquette's turnover driven defense. If Caleb Love and RJ Davis show up in the backcourt for the Heels, they should handle a Marquette team that appears to have peaked already.
UNC is the more reliable offense and I like them to dominate on the glass en route to a victory and move onto the second round.
PICK: North Carolina -3
Loyola Chicago (-1) vs. Ohio State
I got this at PK, but still see value in -1 with the Ramblers set to roll in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State's defense has been a problem for a while, and they are running into a Loyola-Chicago team that is playing their best basketball at the right time. While the team is known for their defense, top 25 on that side of the ball, their offense is up to seventh in effective field goal percentage.
Drew Valentine has four rotation players shooting over 37% from beyond the arc and the team is more than capable at finishing around the rim, 68th per Haslemetrics.
Ohio State lacks the ball handling to make the disciplined Ramblers defense pay as the team shuts off the paint to opponents. Sure, Ohio State can can a few catch-and-shoot 3-point shots, but ultimately I see their offense stalling as they mainly play through the high post with E.J. Liddell.
The Buckeyes defense, which is outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency is going to hold them back. This isn't a trap line or anything. Forget the seeds and look at the two teams, Sister Jean is primed for another March run.
PICK: Loyola Chicago -1, play to -2
UAB (+8.5) vs. Houston
Houston checks all the boxes of a National Championship contender. Yeah, despite their place on the five line, this Cougars team boasts a top 20 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
However, something doesn't feel right. The team has battled injuries all season, mainly in the backcourt, and can be susceptible from deep. The team allows 3's due to their compact defense and the Blazers are top 10 in the nation in 3-point percentage.
Both teams crash the glass on offense and it's going to be a physical battle down low, but I trust UAB's guard Jordan 'Jelly' Walker to lead the way for UAB. The 5'11" Blazer is off of averaging 31 points per game in the Conference-USA Tournament and is adept at drawing fouls, something that will be big against a Houston team that is physical and sends teams to the line.
I make this line closer to -5 as UAB is capable down low to battle with the Houston frontcourt and has the guard in Jelly, who can be the next March star.
PICK: UAB +8.5, play to +7