Net Yards per Play Report for NFL Championship Weekend (Lions are distant fourth amongst remaining teams)
We're down to the final four teams in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy and as I've been saying all season, "Net Yards per Play" has done a terrific job in predicting who the final teams standing would be.
Three of the four teams playing on Championship Sunday finished the season in the top four in Net Yards per Play. The one team that sticks out as a distant fourth is the Detroit Lions.
Before I jump into it any further, allow me to explain what Net Yards per Play means:
What is Net Yards per Play?
Net Yards per Play is the figure you're left with when you take the average yards gained per play on offense and then subtract the average yards given up per play on defense.
Remember, Net Yards per Play doesn't take into account things like penalties, turnovers, and red zone efficiency. With that being said, it's a good starting point to see how well a team moves the ball down the field while preventing their opponents from doing so.
If you want my best bet for both Conference Championship games, you can find them in the latest edition of the Road to 272 Bets here.
Net Yards per Play Standings for Championship Sunday
Net Yards per Play rankings for the final four teams ahead of Championship Sunday: pic.twitter.com/iN4dfyGCMI
— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) January 24, 2024
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Lions are odds man out in final four
I'm sorry Lions fans, but there's one team that looks like the sore thumb when looking at the Net Yards per Play rankings above. The Lions rank last of the four teams in all four splits. Most notably, they're especially bad over their last three games (-0.8) and on the road (-0.3).
They had been solid at home this season, but with the Lions preparing to head to San Francisco for the NFC Championship, that could prove to be a big problem.
Detroit managed to escape with wins in the first two rounds but the Lions had a Net Yards per Play of -1.6 vs. the Rams and then followed it up with a Net Yards per Play of -1.3 vs. the Buccaneers. If they want to upset the 49ers, they simply have to win the yards per play battle.
The Lions are currently set as 7.5-point underdogs in San Francisco.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.