Net Yards Per Play Report: Top Two NFC Teams Will Face-Off in NFC Championship

After 20 weeks of NFL action, we're down to the final four teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship while the Philadelphia Eagles will host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship.

Let's dive into these matchups a little bit closer. My favorite stat to look at to begin my handicapping process is net yards per play. It's the number you're left over with when you take the average yards gained per play on offense and then subtract the average yards given up per play on defense.

Net yards per play doesn't factor in things like third down conversion rate, turnovers, and red zone efficiency, but it still gives us a general idea of how well a team moves the ball down the field while preventing the other team to do so.

Let's take a look at where the final four teams rank in this stat, and then I'll dive into each of the two matchups.

Eagles vs. 49ers NFC Championship

For basically the entire NFL season, the 49ers and Eagles were a step above the rest in the NFC in terms of net yards per play, and quite frankly, pretty much any other stat you look at. It's rare that we get a championship game between the two best teams, but that's what we get here.

It's important to note how much better San Francisco has been on the road this season. The 49ers net yards per play increases from +0.6 at home to +1.5 on the road. The Eagles have been better at home, but they've been more even on the road and at home this season, with their home splits only increasing by +0.2.

Both teams have been very similar in this stat over their last three games. The Eagles come in at +0.9 and the 49ers come in at +1. Last week, the Eagles largely outperformed the 49ers, but there's no denying that Philadelphia had the much easier opponent in the Giants as opposed to the Cowboys.

I have a feeling this NFC Championship game is going to be one for the ages.

Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship

Nobody looked more dumb on Sunday than yours truly. I spent the entire week talking about how much better the Bills were than the Bengals, and I even made the title of last week's article "Bengals aren't as good as you think".

Then, of course, the Bengals steamrolled the Bills.

Still, the numbers are the numbers and I'm married to them. The Bengals were around middle of the NFL in net yards per play all season, while ranking toward the bottom of the NFL in net yards per play on the road.

But, Joe Burrow and company seem to turn it on when it's a big game.

Of course, the biggest question this week is the status of Mahomes high ankle sprain, which obviously isn't factored into net yards per play. Still, don't be too surprised if the Bengals don't live up to expectations.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.