Are the Brooklyn Nets going to be fighting for their playoff lives?
It sure seems like it, as the Nets fell to the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference with just four games to play, and they are now in a tough spot to make the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Brooklyn has a 51 percent chance to make the postseason, but the oddsmakers at WynnBET haven’t dropped the Nets’ odds to win the Eastern Conference (+250, favorite) or the NBA Finals (+550, second).
Maybe Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and company are too good for Vegas to move them down the odds list, but the Nets may need to win two games on the road just to make the playoffs if they remain in the No. 10 seed.
I don’t think we can write Brooklyn off, but there’s an easy way to put this into perspective.
Nets’ Playoff Odds for 2021-22 Season Based on Implied Probability
Based on FiveThirtyEight’s projections, the Nets should have -104 odds to make the postseason and +104 odds to miss the postseason this year.
However, when you calculate their odds to win the East at +250, that means there is an implied probability of 28.6 percent that they are in the NBA Finals.
That simply doesn’t add up. Brooklyn, potentially because of liability, is way too far up in the futures odds, as it is still going to be in a tough spot to make the postseason.
The biggest issue for the Nets comes on the defensive end, especially if Ben Simmons can’t return to the lineup for the play-in tournament.
Brooklyn is just 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and it lost to the Atlanta Hawks, a team it may face in the play-in, this past weekend even though Kevin Durant scored 55 points.
The Nets are too talented to completely write off, but they are far from a lock to be in the playoffs this season, and they’ll need to find another gear if they have to win multiple games just to grab the No. 8 seed this postseason.
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