Nets vs. Celtics Series Preview: The Case for Brooklyn to Upset Boston

All eyes will be on the 2/7 matchup in the Eastern Conference playoffs when the Boston Celtics take on the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets had a windy road to the postseason, but enter with their two stars in hand with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving playing at an all-world level and the hopeful return of Ben Simmons at some point in this series. The team still has championship aspirations, but will have a difficult task against the best team in the NBA since January 1st, the Boston Celtics.

This is a rematch of the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs last season, but with the seeds flipped as Boston has turned themselves into a defensive juggernaut.

Listen, I'm a diehard Nets fan, you probably won't find a bigger one than me. I have season tickets to the team and I breathe Brooklyn basketball (insert joke about how the Nets have no fans). If you think I'll just give my biased opinion, sure, stop reading, but here's how I assess the most compelling matchup of the first round.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics Series Price

• Nets: +120
• Celtics: -140

Nets with Durant and Irving Are Championship Level Good

The series price seems fair. The Celtics should be rightful favorites in this series as they have home court advantage and the Nets are still a relative unknown. Brooklyn has two superstars in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who are both high powered offensive engines. They can score from anywhere and are capable of going for 40 on a whim. We know that, but the numbers are staggering to look at.

This season, albeit on a limited sample due to several issues, the Nets haven't had the two at full capacity at the same time. When they are on the floor together, they are devastating. They are posting a net rating of +13.1 in 523 minutes together, per NBA.com.

Irving is a maestro with the ball, but it's Durant's two-way excellence that really stands out. When he is on the floor, the Nets are 13 points per 100 possessions better, per Cleaning the Glass, 97th percentile. The team's effective field goal percentage goes up by more than 6% as not only his gravity as a shot maker, the 100th percentile in the league, but his ability as a passer stands out, creating clean looks for teammates. He posted a career high 6.4 assists this season.

On defense, the Nets go from a league average with KD on the court to one to the worst in the NBA, 87th percentile in terms of on/off impact, per CTG, when he's off.

So, yeah with Durant on the floor, the Nets are always a threat.

So we know Durant and Irving can score, and their defense has held up well enough to be passable. However, the Celtics are the premier defense in the NBA right now. They have a glut of wing defenders to throw at the Nets duo.

Boston has the best defense in the league this season and has the likely Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. First year head coach (and ironically former Brooklyn assistant) Ime Udoka has gotten the best out of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on that side of the floor as well. The two budding stars have become two-way threats and can hang with Durant and Irving as well.

Injury Reports on Both Sides Important

However, there is one caveat to the Boston defense. The unit is lockdown, no doubt about it, but they are likely down Robert Williams for the majority of the series, who is still recovering from meniscus surgery. With Williams on the floor, the Celtics allow 104.4 points per 100 possessions, but the team allows 4.8 points per 100 possessions more when he is on the sidelines. Still elite, but the team does take a step back.

'Time Lord' would have likely won DPOY if he didn't get hurt, and his impact is the most important for the roster. It's not just because of his rim protection and ability to step out and switch in the pick-and-roll, but it's because of who is behind him on the depth chart. Daniel Theis and Al Horford are not apt at switching like Williams and they are the only big men behind him.

With Williams in street clothes, Theis and Horford are going to be hunted on the defensive side of the ball. Durant and Irving will hunt those two out with the ball in the pick-and-roll and I believe those two can negate the defensive impact of Smart and Boston's wings. Playoff basketball is different than regular season ball, and mismatches get exploited until the player is off the floor. There is no greater mismatch hunter than Durant.

Udoka mentioned that he's not counting on Williams to be back this series, but everything is played close to the chest at this point in the season. Take the Ben Simmons situation, for example. Simmons was acquired by Brooklyn in the James Harden at the trade deadline, but he hasn't played after suffering a back injury in his ramp up to competition.

Assuming neither player comes back, Brooklyn is prepared for it considering he hasn't touched the floor for the Nets yet, while Boston may be in for a serious drop off during the postseason without their big man.

No, Simmons hasn't played this season just yet, but it does appear he is on track to come back at some point this series. The expectations must be low for Simmons, who hasn't played this season, but if he can play 15-20 minutes and give the Nets another switchable big, Brooklyn's defense becomes trickier to sold. Brooklyn has switchable bigs such as Durant, Nic Claxton, and hopefully Simmons, to limit any advantage situations for the likes of Tatum and Brown.

Nets Defense is Better Suited for this Series?

Tatum is an All-NBA talent, and Brown is a formidable second fiddle, but the Nets have the isolation shot making edge. I also think the Nets quietly have a depth advantage.

With or without Simmons, the Nets have switchable defenders like Claxton in the fold that the Celtics don't have with Williams on the sideline. Tatum and Brown will get their own, but there are less holes on the Nets defense to exploit, as currently constructed.

I mentioned Durant's impact on the defense, and the Nets defense overall has been rounding into form.

Since March 13th, the Nets are top 10 in defensive rating, per NBA.com. No, this may not be the series for Andre Drummond, who can be attack with his typical drop coverage, but the Nets have a far superior advantage against Horford and Theis on the other end with bigs that can switch all positions like Durant and Claxton.

Boston's counter is likely Grant Williams, who has struggled quite a bit on D relative to the Celtics lockdown defense. The C's allow 7.9 points per 100 possessions when Williams is on the floor this season.

Who has the Shooting Edge?

I trust the Nets stable of shot makers to play off of Durant and Irving than the other side of that. Like I mentioned, the Nets are +6.2 eFG% with Durant is playing, and are posting a 59.3 eFG% when the two are on the floor. The team has spot up shooting threats like Seth Curry and Patty Mills, while Boston has Derrick White (30% from 3 since getting traded to Boston) and Smart, who is a streaky shooter over the course of his career.

I trust the duo of Durant and Irving, as well as their rotation to match up with Boston, while also outpacing them on offense.

Final Thoughts, Betting Advice

I laid out some reasons why the Nets may have the edge in this matchup. Udoka is a fantastic coach who has built a defensive powerhouse, but playoff basketball is a different beast. Durant and Irving are built to win the isolation battles, but also hunt out the Celtics short handed frontcourt.

The emergence of Bruce Brown as a 3-point shot maker (48% on more than 2 attempts per game) gives the Nets increased floor spacing and another threat when Durant and Irving command more attention.

On the other side, Tatum and Brown are two stars in this league, but the Nets ability to switch will lead to less advantage scenarios for Boston in this series. The loss of 'Time Lord' leaves them a man short in this series.

If we look back at when the two team's met on March 6th, Boston eeked out a 126-120 win, but needed a big defensive performance from Williams on defense and a super human 54 points from Tatum to get the close win. If Tatum goes for 50+ all series (he did in the team's lone win over Brooklyn last postseason under different circumstances for what it's worth) then tip your cap, but Durant is the more reliable superstar here.

I don't see a ton of value pre-flop betting Brooklyn unless this series price got to +150, but if you can find a market on total games, this seems destined to go to at least 6. Nets in 6 gives you the ability to hedge later on if Brooklyn gets home for that game at 3-2. That's all I see though, I'd rather bet this series game to game.

Oddsmakers are taking opportunities out of bettors hands on the Nets, who are the second choice to win the East but underdogs in this series. It makes sense for them to be dogs given that they are on the road four times in a series against the team with the third shortest odds, but there's not much betting value on this club right now due to preseason expectation.

If you are betting the Nets in the Futures market, I'd advise doing a moneyline roll over of each series, taking Nets to win this series, placing the winnings and putting it on an inevitable matchup with the Bucks and then again in the Eastern Conference Finals. If you want a Finals bet, you roll it over again. You will get a far better payout than taking the Nets in the Futures market.

While Boston had an insane run to close the season, that type of success isn't that indicative of an NBA Champion. Impeccable shot making, and counters to game plans over the course of a seven game series are, and ultimately Brooklyn has that.

I think Nets ultimately win in 6.

How should you navigate the NBA playoffs and futures market? The BetSided has you covered in the NBA edition of "Fraud or Future!"